VIDEO: Jerry Remy reflects on the 2008 Red Sox

Jerry Remy sat down with the folks at Soxheads.com to reflect on the 2008 season:

Remy Reflections Part 1 - Tek's future, Schillings return and Manny...



Remy Reflections Part 2 - The end of the 2008 season, Game 7 of the ALCS, Beckett in Game 6...



Remy Reflections Part 3 - David Ortiz, Pedroia's "Remy stunk" comment...

Limited alternatives will likely keep Varitek in Boston

The Globe's Maureen Mullen spoke with a few major league scouts about Jason Varitek and the lack of quality catchers in the majors right now:

“I’d take Varitek if he hit .210, just by the way he works hitters and the knowledge he has of how to run a game,” said a major league scout. “He makes bad pitchers into mediocre pitchers, and he makes mediocre pitchers into pretty good pitchers. How he gets some of the stuff he gets out of them, I don’t know. He’s pretty damn good.”

The question facing Sox management is: If not Varitek, who? It’s a familiar question this off-season, with many teams looking for front-line catching.

“That’s a heck of a question, because there sure isn’t much around from what I’ve seen,” said another major league scout. “The only free agent guys that would be worth anything would be Varitek and [the Yankees’ Ivan] Rodriguez. The rest of them, they’re either backup or not very good front guys. If they lose Varitek, they better hope the [replacement] does well. I don’t think there’s anything else around, and anybody that has a catcher that’s worth anything is not going to want to part with them for sure.”

Those other “free agent guys” include Toronto’s Rod Barajas (the team has a $2.5 million option) and Gregg Zaun, the Cubs’ Henry Blanco ($3 million team option), the White Sox’ Toby Hall ($2.25 million team option), and the Reds’ Javier Valentin.

“I have no idea where you’d find a catcher or one that’s worth even talking about that’s available, as far as a free agent goes,” the second scout said. “There might be a club that would trade its front-line catcher, but I don’t know. But you’d probably have to give up half the ball club to get him.”

Bottom Line: If the Sox can acquire another bat to fill in the middle of the order, I can live with Tek and his .220-.250 average. But if Lowell and Papi don't get over the injuries that plaqued them in 2008 and the Sox don't add any pop to the lineup... we could be in for a long and unproductive season.

Jacoby, Dustin and Youk can set the table but if no one's coming to dinner - what's the point? Thoughts?

Read the full article here.

TEK UPDATE: Ken Rosenthal says Boras is pitching Varitek to the Tigers:

"Boras, according to a rival executive, is trying to sell catcher Jason Varitek to the Tigers as a replacement for another of his clients, Ivan Rodriguez. The idea is not without merit; the Tigers' lineup is strong enough to carry Varitek's declining offense, and his defense and leadership would greatly benefit their pitching staff. "

Magglio or Bay ?

Lynn Henning of The Detroit News says the Tigers's main objectives this offseason are finding a new short stop (or signing Edgar Renteria to a smaller contract), adding bullpen depth (especially a closer) and signing a catcher.

But outfielder Magglio Ordonez might be hindering them from addressing all of those concerns:

A critical question is whether the team can expect to achieve anything other than payroll relief if it trades Magglio Ordonez. The Tigers aren't in favor of trading a career .312 hitter on Ordonez's level, particularly one who consistently hits good pitching. Ordonez would leave a serious hole in a batting order that could be further strapped if Detroit, as expected, settles on a new shortstop known more for his defense than for his hitting.

Ordonez, however, will turn 35 in January and stands to pull $48 million during the final three years of his contract. The Tigers are staring at a potentially tough year at the box office and might need to consider trading Ordonez even if little is obtained in return.

A more realistic possibility is the Tigers would agree to absorb some of Ordonez's remaining money if they could gain a reliever, shortstop or catcher in return.

The Red Sox have the goods to make such an offer, the question is, do they want to?

Just go with me here for a sec...

The Sox need some pop in the middle of the lineup and would probably prefer a righty. Mags fits the bill, averaging 24 HRs, 115 RBI and a .326 BA over the past three seasons.

Jason Bay exceeded all expectations, batting .293 with 9 HRs and 37 RBIs in 49 games and leading the offense in the playoffs with a .341 BA, 3 HRs and 9 RBI. But Bay is just one of a handful of guys that fit in the 5 or 6 spot - Drew, Youk, Lowell... somebody needs step up and hit clean up.

Bay will be a free agent in 2009 and is making 7.5 million a year... the Tigers might be happy to get a guy like Bay and maybe a reliever like Manny Delcarmen in return for Magglio and his large salary.

Hell, maybe the Tigers will even take Julio Lugo off our hands!

The Sox can obviously afford to give Mags his $16M, but the Tigers could agree to absorb some of that money, as mentioned by Henning points out.

Bottom Line: I love Jason Bay. He's low maintenance and he just turned 30 in September... he's really at his peak right now, and Mags (35) may have his best years behind him... but it's an interesting idea.

What do you guys think?

Youk gets trophey ball rolling with Hank Aaron Award

Kevin Youkilis, who also happens to be in the running for the AL MVP award, earned the Hank Aaron award for the American League yesterday. The Cubs' Aramis Ramirez won the award for the National League.

Fans cast 230,000 votes at MLB.com, the official Web site of Major League Baseball, in this, the sixth consecutive year that fans have had a voice in selecting the award winners in this fashion. The Hank Aaron Award officially recognizes the most outstanding offensive performer in the American and National Leagues.

"These guys have demonstrated that they can play the game of baseball the way it's meant to be played," Aaron said about the award winners. "The most home runs I ever hit in a season were 47 [in 1971]. And that was it. No more. And I just want to say, really, I offer my congratulations to the two of them. And believe me that it just takes teamwork, and I'm sure that things are going to work out fine for them."

Ramirez hit .289 with 97 runs scored, a career-high 44 doubles, 27 home runs, a club-high 111 RBIs, a career-best .380 on-base percentage and a .518 slugging percentage.

Youkilis set career highs with a .312 batting average to rank sixth in the AL, 168 hits, 43 doubles, and club-high totals of 29 home runs and 115 RBIs, good for fourth in the AL.

Red Sox Monster has Youk's press conference on video - here.

Bottom Line: This is just the first of many trophies Red Sox players could be handed this offseason. Youk is an MVP candidate along with Dustin Pedroia. Both will be in the running for Gold Gloves as well, with Dustin having the best shot. Tek has a good shot at winning another Golve Glove at cather as well. And Jacoby Ellsbury will likey be Evan Longoria's biggest competition for the AL Rookie of the Year.

Fenway Park is not in Colorado...

Mark Teixeira is probably the No. 1 Free Agent on the market right now, and a perfect fit for the Boston Red Sox... but two other big names have been floated out there as well:

Free Agent 1B/3B Garret Atkins and OF Matt Holiday (FA '09) of the Colorado Rockies.

I just want to remind everyone that both of these players, despite being 28 and typically posting lines like .300 BA / 20-30 HR / 100-120 RBI... their home/away splits tell a very different story.

Holliday, since 2004

HOME: 1353 AB, .357 BA, 84 HR, 307 RBI, 106 doubles, 16 triples
AWAY: 1303 AB, .280 BA, 44 HR, 176 RBI, 82 doubles, 7 triples

Atkins, since 2003

HOME: 1192 AB, .337 BA, 44 HR, 236 RBI, 82 doubles
AWAY: 1242 AB, .260 BA, 45 HR, 195 RBI, 68 doubles

Holliday missed a few games this year due to injury and finished with a mediocre (for him) .321 / 25 / 88 line. His splits aren't as drastic as Atkins' but his power is cut in half when you take him out of Coors Field. He is a righty, so one can hope that he would make use of the Monster, but Scott Boras is his agent, which means he's not likely to move until he can test the free agent waters in 2009... and, like he's done already with Varitek, Boras will ignore the negatives and focus on Holliday's overall numbers and avoid the fact that he's different hitter away from Colorado.

Signing Holliday would also mean that Jason Bay would be traded, or Coco would be traded and Drew, Ellsbury and Bay would all share time in RF and CF... but that starts to get complicated.

As for Atkins, his splits are much more dramatic - trust me I had to sit him on my fantasy team every time he hit the road. His numbers are also down this year (286/21/ 99) from the norm, which is surprising since this was his free agent year and he knew he was playing for a new contract and had Ian Stewart breathing down his neck.

Like Teixeira, bringing Atkins here will require shifting the infield around and possibly trading Mike Lowell. Atkins is much younger and is also a righty, so he could be a nice fit in Fenway and at third base... but if the road splits are an indication of what we can expect, I think I'd rather spend the money on Teixeira.

Lastly, this goes against my point but it's worth mentioning, here are the regular season numbers for both guys from their interleague visit in 2007:

Holliday -- 5-13 (.385), 2 2BM HR, 2 RBI
Atkins -- 4-12 (.333), 2 2B, HR, 5 RBI

Bottom Line: Both guys are young, and overall, both guys can hit... but are either of them a better fit than Teixeira?

I say no... what do you guys think?

Add Jed Lowrie to the list of walking wounded

This is kinda old news but worth mentioning... From the Globe with a shout-out to Centerfield for the image:

Red Sox infielder Jed Lowrie played since May with a sprain and a small non-displaced fracture in his left wrist, aliments that worsened as the season wore on, general manager Theo Epstein said in an e-mail. The minor injuries were revealed Tuesday when Lowrie underwent an MRI.

The wrist has already begun to heal itself, Epstein said, and should be back to full strength with three weeks of rest. The injuries gave Lowrie occasional pain and affected his grip strength, particularly late in the season, which likely explains his difficulties batting lefthanded. As a righthanded batter, Lowrie hit .338 with a .525 slugging percentage with the Red Sox. Lefthanded, he hit .222 with a .334 slugging percentage.

Lowrie was sent back to the minors in mid-May and hit .348 in 7 games to close out the month, and .310 through 29 games in June. But in July, he hit just .176 in 9 games and was called back up to Boston where we watched him major league BA drop from 3.10 on May 10th to .269 by June 30th.

Knowing what we know now, one could blame the wrist injury, but Jed went on to bat .284 and drive in 24 runs in 27 game through August... the above report says that things got bad late in the year, so that probably explains the .213 average in September, but this story shows the kind of guts this kid has - quite Pedroia-like, as Center field points out.

Bottom Line: Bottom Liner Cory and former teammate of Lowrie chimed in to let us know that Lowrie is the real deal and a seriously hard worker:

"I played on Jed's high school baseball team and the man is a work horse. I have not seen anyone match his work ethic and the guy was born to play SS. Give him one more year tops and his name will be said as much as Pedroia or Ellsbury! If not more!"

If Jed's numbers from August - .284, 24 RBI, 12 doubles, 3 triples, a homer and 12 runs scored - are any indication of what he's capable of... I'll be happy to have Jed at SS for the foreseeable future.

See ya Julio.

Just a theory: Start Masterson and sign Brian Fuentes

Tony Mazz had a nice article in the Globe today breaking down the top 5 decisions Theo Epstein and the Sox need make this offseason.

Picking a center fielder (Jacoby or Coco), signing Tek and adding some pop to the lineup are on the list, along with deciding the future of Justin Masterson:

4. What to do with Justin Masterson?

Before anyone suggests that the Red Sox need to improve their pitching staff, slow down. Assuming Josh Beckett's health, the Sox are in good shape here and have better targets than Jake Peavy on which to spend their resources. Remember, too, that the Epstein and his staff have excelled at producing pitching, in particular, and that the Sox still have Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Daniel Bard, among others.

All of this brings us back to Masterson, who is a pivotal player here. If the Sox anticipate him being a starter, they may need some bullpen help and Buchholz becomes a bargaining chip. If Masterson is a seen as a reliever, the Sox may need to keep Buchholz and Bowden for depth in 2009. In either case, the Sox need to establish some sort of plan for Masterson, at least as it pertains to the short term.

This got me thinking...

Personally, I say keep the kids and spend the money on Teixeira not an overpriced starter. That gives you plenty of depth in the starter department, especially if you add Masterson to the mix.

"Mastey" became a key member of the bullpen, especially when the Sox needed a groundball, and his presence seemed to make everything else click. Okajima settled down, Javier Lopez stayed strong and Manny Delcamen seemed relieved to know that he was not the "official set up man."

With all of those guys likely to return in 2009, the Sox have the option to slide Masterson back into the starting role, where he went 4-3 with a 3.67 ERA, and go after a guy like free agent lefty reliever Brian Fuentes to fill Mastey's spot.

Fuentes' names was being tossed around like a hot potato at the All-Star break, but the Rockies' asking price was eventually deemed too high. Now Fuentes is a free agent and if it's simply a matter of money... well, I think the Red Sox have a couple of bucks to throw at him.

Fuentes finished the '08 season as the Rockies closer, totaling 30 saves and 82 strikeouts to go along with a 2.83 ERA. That ERA isn't overly impressive, but it's the best he's had in seven years with the Rockies and he's help opponents under .210 for the three years in a row despite playing home games in the thin Colorado air.

Bottom Line: Fuentes signed in arbitration for $5.05M and the Rockies could chose to make Manuel Corpas their new closer... Fuentes may want to remain a closer, but after watching the Rockies go from losing the 2007 World Series to 74-88 in 2008, he may be interested in a set-up role on a winning club...

Beckett: "I was already on 3/4 of a tank."

After winning 20 games and dominating opponents throughout the postseason in 2007, Red Sox Nation expected Josh Beckett to come back in 2008 with guns-a-blazin'.

Instead, we watched our ace fight through back, elbow and oblique injuries on his way to a mediocre 12-10 record and a 4.03 ERA.

In Rob Bradford's piece on WEEI.com, Beckett explains that he may have started too early with his offseason workout and it but him in the ass:

“Coming into spring training I was already on three-quarters of a tank,” he admitted. “I had to adjust to things. I started working out three weeks after I got home, the same day I normally would. Maybe I will take a month and a half off because that’s what I think my body needs. After that first injury I was catching up the whole time.”

Beckett should be commended for fighting his way through the season and specifically for his heroics in Game 6 in the ALCS, but a healthy Beckett might have enabled the Sox to grab the Division over the Rays, which would have made for an easier rode to another World Series...

Bottom Line: Theo says the best thing for Beckett is to rest his injured oblique for at least 6 weeks. So that means no bar fight, no rough stuff in the sack and no breakin' in broncos... at least until after the holidays - you got that Josh!

Ortiz out, Teixeira in ??

The Globe's Eric Wilbur poses an interesting question today:

Is David Ortiz expendable?

With the Sox looking for some pop in the middle of the lineup, they find themselves with limited options with Youk at first, Ortiz at DH and Lowell at third.

Mark Teixeira, with his patient approach and .300 BA, 100+ RBI, 30 HR potential, is a prefect fit for Boston... but where would he play?

If the Red Sox do indeed make a push for Mark Teixeira, that leaves an awful crowded middle of the lineup with Ortiz, Mike Lowell, and Kevin Youkilis in the mix as well, and only three positions to play all four.

Youkilis would obviously be the most attractive trade value for other teams, making only $3 million, at an age of 29. But dealing Youkilis makes little sense for Boston because of those reasons. Lowell is coming off labrum surgery, which is going to make teams queasy about dealing for a player who will be 35 years old with $24 million remaining on his contract.

With Ortiz, certainly there is an injury concern as well. The wrist appeared to remain an issue right through October, and there’s always the fear that the knee is going to act up again at some point down the road. Still, his home runs have decreased each of the last three seasons, from 54 to 35 to 23 in ’08, when his OPS (.896) slipped below 1.000 for the first time since 2004.

Bottom Line: With the rotation and bullpen in decent shape, the Sox can afford to put some extra eggs in the Teixeira basket, but it's unlikely he'll sign with Boston unless he knows he'll be starting 130+ games...

What would you guys do?

Red Sox turn the page... hot stove already heating up

Theo Epstein plans to be a "selective shopper" this offseason:

"We're at a point now as an organization where we're not desperate to improve in any one area. We can bring back the same group in any one area and be solid and have all of our bases covered. We can now pick our spots and look for areas to improve. Last offseason was great, because we didn't have to be desperate. I think that's the same approach we'll take this year."

Derek Lowe has stated that he would like to come back to Boston:

"Derek Lowe is putting Boston first on his list of preferred destinations now that he's a free agent. Lowe told this reporter that while money is important, he wants to go to a quality organization committed to winning, and no organization, in his mind, fits that description better than Boston."

D-Lowe will be 36 in June of 2009 and went 14-11 with a 3.24 ERA for the Dodgers this year. He's making around $10 M a year, so if he's willing to chop that in half, I think he's make a nice No. 4 or 5 here in Boston for the next year or two.

Padres ace Jake Peavy is another starter that has been linked to the Sox already, but the reported asking price is a little steep: Two pitching prospects and a solid center fielder. The Sox have the prospects and the center field depth to make this deal, but they passed on a similar opportunity last season with Johan Sanatana, and things worked out okay.

Peavy is making $17 M a year right now and went 10-11 with a 2.85 ERA in 27 starts after a stint on the DL. Peavy was an impressive 19-6 with a 2.54 ERA and 240 Ks, so he's got the goods, but with Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka already in the rotation and Masterson, Buchholz, Bowden and others capable of rounding things off - the Sox might choose to jack-up the price on other teams like the Yankees and stick with the kids again.

Another Free Agent that the Sox will definitely be talking to is Jason Varitek. Tek's agent Scott Boras and Theo both know that talented catching is at a premium these days, so it will be interesting to see if Tek's .220 BA this season forces Boras to agree to less money or years than he would like... or if Boras can convince the Sox that Varitek's leadership and defense make him worth every penny.

"There's not a lot of elite catching out there," Epstein said. "At the same time, that changes the standards from what you're looking for. The state of catching shifts the target a little bit. What's league average? What's above league average?"

Boras will surely use this list of Free Agent vagabonds to plead his case:

Brad Ausmus (40)
Paul Bako (37)
Rod Barajas (33) - $2.5MM club option for '09 with a $0.5MM buyout
Josh Bard (31)
Michael Barrett (32)
Henry Blanco (37) - $3MM mutual option for '09 with a $0.3MM buyout
Johnny Estrada (33)
Toby Hall (33) - $2.25MM club option for '09 with a $0.15MM buyout
Jason LaRue (35)
Paul Lo Duca (37)
Miguel Olivo (30) - $2.7MM mutual option for '09 with a $0.1MM buyout
Ivan Rodriguez (37)
David Ross (32)
Javier Valentin (33)
Gregg Zaun (38)

You can never have enough pitching and signing Tek or another catcher is a top priority... but finding a reliable and productive bat for the middle of this lineup should be the number one concern for Theo and Co.

Free Agent 1B Mark Teixeira (.308 BA, 33 HR, 121 RBI) was the big name in July and the Sox will definitely be talking with him, but with Youk at first base and Mike Lowell expected to return from hip surgery in time to start at third in 2009... the Sox will need to get creative with the lineup if they want to sign Teixeira.

And with David Ortiz locked in at DH, the Sox may have to find the power they need in an outfielder. Coco Crisp had a great second half and will likely welcome a chance to play everyday elsewhere, so the Sox could use him as trade bait to get a more powerful outfielder.

Here are some of the better OF options on the Free Agent Market:

Left fielders

Milton Bradley (31)
Emil Brown (34)
Pat Burrell (32)
Adam Dunn (29)
Raul Ibanez (37)
Manny Ramirez (37) (snicker)

Center fielders

Mike Cameron (36) - $10MM club option for '09 with a $750K buyout
Mark Kotsay (33)

Right fielders

Bobby Abreu (35)
Vladimir Guerrero (33) - $15MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout

Most of these guys aren't likely to be in Boston come February, so Theo will have to do some wheeling and dealing elsewhere if he wants to add some pop to the lineup.

Bottom Line: If Big Papi and Josh Beckett return to 2007 form and Mike Lowell can still hit .280+ and drive in 80-100 RBI after surgery, the Sox will be in good shape... but all three of those statements are big "ifs" right now.

We've got the money and the farm system to make a splash, but even if we came back with the exact same squad, I like our chances.

Also, Tony Mazz breaks down the full roster - who's due for a raise, who's moving on and who's in the farm... check it out.

In the end, this was the Rays' year

This is how I choose to remember the 2008 Red Sox.

You don't have to like it, but you can't deny it.

We made a nice run at the division in the second half, but the Rays just wouldn't go away, and in the end they earned the East fair and square. Then, in the ALCS, the Sox refused to go away, but we didn't capitalize on our opportunities when it mattered most - the Rays did - and they won.

Let's face it, it's a miracle there even was a Game 7.

The Sox worked their asses off to get here and jumped more hurdles than an Olympic athlete this season. Beckett's numerous injuries, Buchholz's complete meltdown, Lowell's eventual shut down, Drew's extended DL session, the Manny Saga, and a trip to Japan.

So many guys stepped up both during the season and in the playoffs to make this one of the more exciting seasons in Red Sox history. The Sox rode Pedroia like the "caballito" he is, Jon Lester became an ace, Kevin Youklis rose from gritty local hero to All-Star, Justin Masterson went from a Double A starter, to a fill-in phenom, to a key member of the bullpen, Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury found a way to share center field, Jed Lowrie made us forget about Julio Lugo, and Jason Bay made us forget about Manny.

In the end, it just wasn't enough. Fate had decided that she has spent too many summers with us already and moved on... to the Rays. We had our chances, and we'll be agonizing over them all winter long - wondering if the clutch hitting Big Papi will return in 2009, hoping Josh Beckett simply had an off year, and debating if the possible return of Jason Varitek is a good thing or a bad thing.

But for now, let's tip our caps to Joe Maddon and the Rays. They earned it.

But we'll be back.

* * * *
A special thanks to evryone that stopped by this season. The Bottom Line has grown leaps and bounds this year and we hope to make it even better for 2009. We'll be here all winter tweaking the site and talking Sox, so don't be a stranger!

Because it worked last time...

Tonight we silence the cowbells... for good.

One more... winnner takes all

"There's nowhere to run."

"We've been in there before," said David Ortiz. We know what it takes to win games. It's not easy. It's not like we like to be in that situation. I guess that's the way our destiny has been the past few years that we have won the World Series."

Tonight we silence the cowbells

Red Sox regain the momentum; Rays shell-shocked

* * * *

Martin Fennelly's "Oh, the horrors!" - Tampa Tribune

The Rays, once seemingly moments from the World Series, walked from the field at Fenway Park as Sox danced and fans screamed, victims of what will go down as the great single-game comeback in LCS history _ the greatest collapse, too. The tubs of champagne, which had been sitting in tubs on carts, were quickly wheeled out of view.

"I just can't believe what happened tonight," Carl Crawford said. "It's devastating."

And then, in the next instant...

"I'm still thinking we're going to close it out."

* * * *

ESPN's Jim Caple wonders how/if the Rays will recover:

So how do you put THAT behind you?

"How do you overcome blowing a seven-run lead when you're just seven outs from going to the World Series? How do you stuff a monumental, historic collapse -- A SEVEN-RUN LEAD WITH SEVEN OUTS TO GO! -- into the hall closet of your mind so you can come back the next game and win (instead of losing to become the supporting cast in another team's postseason highlight video)?"

Well, if you're Tampa Bay designated hitter Cliff Floyd, you go home, wake up with your children, turn on the TV and tune to Nickelodeon.

Seriously - Read more...

* * * *

St. Petersburg Times/Tampabay.com - In 10 words: How does this loss feel?

Posted by: Matt - "Something the Cubs would be proud of."

Posted by: Bill - "I broke my coffee table when Drew hit that HR"

More than 10 words but...

Posted by: Derron - "Why in the world does Joe Maddon decide to be so cute? I would have used ten pitchers if I had to in order to win the game. You would have had a week to rest all of them for crying out loud. This one is squarely on Maddon!"

Posted by: Kevin - "We were supposed to lose yesterday anyway. We win tomorrow."

Posted by: TMW - "Unbelievable! We got Rayszed by the Sox in a matter of moments."

And my favorite...

Posted by: Sue - "I'm a Rays fan. I didn't even know the Rays existed until two weeks ago. Go Rays!!"

Heroes

JD Drew - Don't need to say much here... he's batting .258 in the playoffs, but he's made more clutch hits than anyone else... two last night.










Big Papi - Tito said he just needed one nice hit to get his mojo going again... If it wasn't the triple in Game 4, then it has to be his homer last night.










Coco - You're all gonna think that I'm a fair weather fan, but I have my Coco shirt on right now and I've been rooting for him all season. Tito looks like a genius for putting him in the lineup, but Coco deserves the credit... and more playing time.









Youk - Not only has he seamlessly filled in at 3B, but he didn't even blink when asked to become the new clean-up man... he had 2 hits last night and scored the winning run. He and Dustin are the faces of this year's team - no question.









Pedroia - Coco's at-bat and eventual game-tying hit will probably get more credit in years to come, but Dustin's 2-out battle with Grant Balfour was the stuff of legend.










Jason Bay - He earned a walk and scored on Drew's homer and his .371 BA in his first ever postseason FORCED Maddon to walk him in the 9th... you know the rest.










Jed Lowrie - Kid turned the biggest double play of his life like he was in the back yard... and I chuckled in the 9th when I found myself saying "If Drew walks, Lowrie will get it done." - How quickly I have come to trust him in the clutch.









Mark Kotsay - The guy has been awesome at 1B and made another GREAT play last night... he's also batting .290 in the playoffs, went 2-4 last night and scored from second on Coco's hit in the 8th. I feel bad for Casey, but Kotsay had really stepped up!









Papelbon - Giving up that double to Upton was bad, but his 8th inning made up for it and overall he's got 12 Ks, 2 walks, 3 hits and a 0.97 ERA in 9.1 postseason innings.










Masterson - He had me nervous in the 9th, but he stayed calm and earned the biggest DP of his life. It hurts my brain to think that he started the year as a starter in Double A Portland... he's officially the No. 2 guy out of the pen - period.









Tito - Starting Coco, putting Kotsay in the 9-hole and calling for Paps in the 7th... it all worked out... as if he planned it...











Maddon - Through 7 inning he looked like a genius for starting Kazmir... but his decision to walk Bay to get to Drew will be the move everyone remembers.

Holy crap.

I failed miserably at picking a title for this post. But can you blame me?

With more than a handful of heroes worthy of a shout out and euphoria still flowing throw my veins, it's nearly impossible to sum up last night's comeback with a 5 to 8 word statement.

I'll admit this much however... this was the title I had picked out when I left my house a 10pm to play an indoor soccer game: "Longball is Sox demise in ALCS" - or something to that effect.

As you may recall, at 10pm, I had already watched BJ Upton line a 2-run shot into row 1 of the Monster seats and Pena and Longoria go back-to-back in the 3rd. It was 5-0 at that point but the Red Sox had stranded what felt like 100 base runners and I have to admit, I drove to soccer trying to get excited about the Patriots.

At the end of the soccer game, a teammate checked his phone and told me that score was now 7-4 bad guys. We shrugged and joked that at least the Sox had finally scored some runs... the glutton for punishment in me began to wonder if another miracle was still possible. So I raced home and grabbed the remote just in time to hear that David Ortiz had finally woken up and JD Drew had hit another miracle ding-dong to put the Sox within one!

The Misses and I sat on the edge of the bed and watched Coco foul off pitch after pitch until he finally lined that RBI single to right and tied the game.

That's when I realized that Papelbon was in the dugout and not the bullpen. Tito had called his number back in the 7th! Justin Masterson put two on before getting Pena to ground into the most important double play of his life... and at that point I knew we were going to win.

Suddenly it felt the the ALDS again and this time the baseball gods were throwing lightning bolts at the Rays instead of the Angels. With two outs in the 9th Evan Longoria makes a rare error on a Youkilis grounder and then Maddon chooses to walk Bay to get to JD Drew - the guy who just hit a 2-run shot in the 8th and is 4-7 against the lefty Howell.

After watching Howell make Papi look bad with the breaking balls, I was nervous, but you could feel that the momentum had switched and the young and cocky Rays were suddenly nervous and wide-eyed - they're magical series was slipping away!

Drew would get his pitch and line the ball over Gabe Gross who was playing shallow to ensure that Youk didn't score from second. But he did, and the Red Sox pulled off another miracle, overcoming a 7-0 deficit with 8 runs in the 8th and 9th.

I took a shower and fell right to sleep... with visions of the Sox spraying the locker room with Tropicana orange juice after Game 7 and a smile on my face.

It's Time to Cowboy Up!

video courtesy of FOX

ALCS Game 5: Do or die time... again

The Globe's Tony Mazz:

"Entering Game 5 of this ALCS, since the start of the 2003 season, the Red Sox are an astonishing 16-3 in postseason elimination games, those contests in which at least one team faced the end of its season. The club's only losses in such affairs came in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS (against the New York Yankees), Game 3 of the 2005 AL Divison Series (against the Chicago White Sox) and Game 3 of this year's ALDS (against the Los Angeles Angels)."

The 2008 Red Sox differ greatly from the 04 and 07 clubs that overcame 3-1 deficits - the biggest differences being the absence of Manny Ramirez in the lineup and the late season injuries to Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett.

But I refuse to accept that this team is finished. Matsuzaka pulled some postseason magic out of his hat in Game 1 and there's no reason to think he can't do it again. The Rays knew that patience would be the key to beating Matsuzaka, but that approach didn't help them in Game 1 as Dice-K fanned 9 batters while allowing 4 hits and 4 walks (3 of which came in the 1st inning).

As we mentioned before Game 1, Dice-K loves a good dome and has yet to lose on the road, but he'll be pitching at Fenway tonight where his numbers are good, but not amazing: 9-3, 3.34 ERA, .246 BAA. For some reason, Matsuzaka allowed 80 hits in 91+ inning at home, while holding batters to just 48 hits in 76 innings on the road... the Sox will be hoping that trend doesn't continue tonight.

Interestingly, the Rays will counter with Scott Kazmir, rather than James Shields tonight.

"Kaz has had more success here than Shields, but again, a lot of it has to do with the day off to follow, and then you have a fresh bullpen, thus we did it," Maddon said.

Maddon says he's going with Kazmir because of the numbers, but the reference to a rested bullpen makes me wonder if Maddon is already planning for a trip back to Tampa...

Kazmir is 4-4 with a 3.02 ERA in 11 career outings at Fenway, but he's 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 2 starts at Fenway this season. We saw Kaz in Game 2 and pounded him for 5 runs and 3 homers. Back in September Kazmir pitched back to back outing against the Sox, holding us to 2 runs through 6 in what eventually became a 5-4 win for the Rays at Fenway... but he lasted just 3 innings after giving up 9 runs and 4 homers in a 5-13 loss five days later at the Trop.

Bottom Line: Sean McAdam put it well:

“We’re not looking to give them any kind of crack,” Maddon said yesterday.

But he’s done more than offer them a crack. In rearranging his rotation with an apparent eye toward a worst-case scenario, Maddon is holding the door wide open for the Red Sox, taking their coats and directing them to make themselves comfortable.

One pitch, one at-bat, one game at a time fellas.

A Friendly Reminder...

Down 2-0 to Oakland in the 2003 ALDS...















Down 3-0 to the Yankees after a 19-8 shellacking in the 2004 ALCS...















Down 3-1 to the Indians in the 2007 ALDS...















A few other friendly reminders:

Centerfield compares these returning 3-1 defecits to that annoying relative that drops in unannounced...

Fenway West reminds us to Keep The Faith.

And Surviving Grady thinks we have the Rays right where we want them...

Kazmir to start Game 5; Shields bumped to Game 6

Joe Madden announced today that Scott Kazmir will start Game 5... not James Shields:

Part of Maddon's reasoning is that moving Kazmir to Thursday's start at Fenway would allow the manager to use his full complement of relievers, with a day off scheduled for Friday.

Further, with Shields, who tends to pitch deeper into games than Kazmir, taking the mound for Game 6, the Rays' bullpen would likely be better rested for a decisive Game 7 should the series get that far.

"We like using [Kazmir] with the day off coming afterwards, we're better able to utilize our bullpen that way," Maddon said on "First Take. "It also lets us pitch Shields at [Tropicana Field]."
Shields has been much better at home than on the road this season: he's 9-2 with a 2.59 ERA at the Trop, and 1-1 with 3.29 ERA in the postseason. Further, at Fenway this season, he's 0-2 with a 21.21 ERA in two starts.

Extra Bases has another possible reason for the switch:

Kazmir and Game 6 Umpire Derryl Cousins have some history... get the full story here.

I have become... comfortably numb

Seriously... I gave it the college try last night. I tried to convince myself that Wake was going to dazzle the Rays with the knuckler... and Big Papi was going show us the that there is still some magic in that bat... the Fenway Faithful were going to remind the Rays what it means to fear playing in the Fens...

But it was 3-0 nothing before I finished my first slice of pizza and I slipped into a denial filled coma for the rest of the game...

I know... we've been in this kind of hole before... but I'm not ready to put on my rose colored glasses yet.

So for now, I remain comfortably numb.

ALCS Game 4: Wake to the rescue?

Because I just don't have the energy to hype this game, here are some quick stats about tonight's match-up:

Wake is 7-4 with a 3.10 ERA at Fenway this year... compared to a 3-7, 5.14 line on the road.

He hasn't thrown since his final start of the regular season on September 28th. In that outing he blanked the Yankees for 5 innings, allowing just 2 hits while fanning 3 and walking none.

He's 19-5 with a 3.332 ERA in his career against the Rays, but he went 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA in three starts against them this season.

Wake owns a 6.36 ERA in the postseason... if you take away the 9.1 innings and 10 earned runs during relief work, it drops to 5.85.

The last time he started a playoff game he blanked the Indians through 4 innings and then imploded in the 5th. e gave up 3 runs and then handed the ball over to Delcarmen who gave up a 3-run shot to Johnny Peralta. We got 3 back in the 6th, but lost 7-3.

Carl Crawford went 2 for 7 with 2 homer runs against Wake this year and is 25 for 82 (.305) in his career... he's never stolen a base against Wake, but has been caught 9 times.

Longoria is 3 for 6 (.500) and Iwamura is 4 for 9 (.444) and both guys have 2 stolen bases against Wake... BJ Upton is 1 for 5 (.200).

Andy Sonnanstine is a modest 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in 6 starts against the Red Sox.

That said, he blanked the Sox in back-to-back starts this season, posting a 0.00 ERA through 13 innings, allowing just 7 hits while fanning 12.

"Sonny" lost his last two starts of the regular season, but bounced back ti beat the White Sox in the ALDS. He lasted 5 2/3 innings and gave up just 3 hits, but two of them were solo home runs.

JD Drew is 4 for 11 (.364) with a double, a homer and 3 RBI against Sonnanstine... Jason Varitek is 5 for 10 (.500) with a homer and 4 RBI ... Jed Lowrie is 3 for 5 (.600).

Youk is just 1 for 12 (.083), Ellsbury is 3 for 12 (.250) but one of those hits was a homer, and Big Papi is 3 for 16 (.188) but one of those was a triple!

Bottom Line: We've crawled out of bigger holes than this, but you have to admit that the momentum is with the Rays right now... which is why this game is so important. They're playing like they've got nothing to lose, so we need to put the fear back in them with an ol' fashion shellacking tonight.

The guys at SG put well:

"If being embarrassed in front of the home town team, if hearing the crowd rain boos down on the likes of the Captain himself, is what it takes to wake these guys up, to remind them that they're the defending World Series champions until someone can wrestle the trophy out of their hands, then I'm fine with it."

VIDEO: Francona talks about Lester's rare dud

Jon Lester was supposed to be unhittable at home.

The Fenway Faithful were supposed to ignite the offense.

Matt Garza's inexperience and mediocre numbers were supposed to result in a further depletion of the Rays bullpen.

Well, none of that happened and I want some answers!

Tito says that Lester just wasn't sharp, a few big location mistakes cost him and the Sox. Here's more on Big Papi (1:30) ... Ellsbury (2:00) ... Garza (3:00)



Lester has been pretty amazing this season, so I'm willing to sweep this one under the rug and feel confident that he'll bounce back if the series goes that far.

For now, all our hopes and prayers will be with Tim Wakefield. Wake has had success against the Rays of old, but they've beaten him up pretty bad as of late... let's hope his home splits act as foreshadowing for tomorrow's match-up with Sonnastine.

Monday Notes: Beckett out for Game 6?

Before we turn the page and get ready for Game 3... here's a look at the hot topics from the weekend:

Beckett blames location, not injury

"I can understand it," Beckett said about the queries from the media. "But if I tell you I'm fine, that's what you've got to go on. Unless you guys are getting information somewhere else, I don't know what to tell you guys. You guys keep asking me the same question about my health. I tell you I'm fine. Just go on that. Write that. I'm fine."

Here's some of what Tito had to say about Beckett's outing on Saturday:

"I saw probably a lot of what you guys saw, maybe from a different angle,’’ Francona said Sunday when asked to assess Beckett’s performance In Game 2. "I thought he was inconsistent, especially out of the stretch. I thought out of the wind-up there was a little more finish to his fastball, but when he got out of the stretch, I think he's still fighting some inconsistencies on what pitches he feels he can throw maybe in a key spot and not get hurt. You could see him thinking through it and kind of grinding through it a little bit."

Amalie Benjamin summed it up quite nicely:

Despite the avowals of the Red Sox that Beckett is fine, it seems difficult to understand where the ineffectiveness is coming from. Pitchers don't just lose multiple miles per hour off their fastballs, as Beckett has, without something being wrong. Could it be the elbow he dealt with in August? Perhaps, though it's hard to believe the Sox would put their ace in jeopardy. Could it be the oblique? Sure, even as Beckett and others say that hasn't been a problem. Could it be the rust of having pitched little in the final months of the season (34 1/3 innings since Aug. 17)? Possibly.

I think it could be a combination of all of those things, but Bottom Line, Beckett is not right and Tony Mazz remdins us that the Sox have the option to skip him in Game 6 and go back to Jon Lester, thanks to the travel day in the schedule.

Before anyone dismisses that possibility out of hand, remember that there is an extra off day in this series, between Games 4 and 5. Thanks to that cushion, Lester could come back and pitch Game 6 on full rest. Furthermore, the extra off day could allow the Sox to skip Beckett entirely and come back with Tim Wakefield in Game 7 if that seems a more palatable option, something not entirely out of the question given the way Beckett has performed in the postseason thus far.

Lester's performance today will be a huge factor in the decision for Game 6. If Lester throws another 100+ pitches today, it may not be wise to ask him to do it for a fourth time - even on regular rest - so last in the season. But if the Sox go up early, Tito could keep Lester's pitch count low and pull him early - just incase they want him to go in Game 6. The same theory applies if he gets shelled early today - but let's not go there...

Bottom Line: You can't plan for Game 6 in the middle of Game 3, but the rest of this series is going to require some guts and gile from Terry Francona - let;s hope he makes the right choices.

* * * *

Ellsbury and Tito talk about Jacoby's current slump:

Asked if anything was going on with Ellsbury, Francona replied:

"Kazmir. They have pretty good pitching, and they went to that pitching, and they got him on his back - I don't want to say back foot," Francona said. "His bat head got a little deep."

"This is the way it goes sometimes," he said. "It'll turn. It's a matter of time. Obviously, you want to go out there and have a great game every time. You're not going to have an excellent game every time. Just staying confident. It's a long season, you're not going to go 4 for 5 every night."

Bottom Line: Jacoby is 0 for 15 in the past 3 games... Dustin Pedroia was 0 for 13 before lining a double off the Monster in Game 4. He's 4 for 8 with 2 homers and 5 runs scored since then... Ells is 6-13 (.462) against Garza and batt8ing .298 at Fenway this year - that sounds like a slump-busting scenario to me...

* * * *

Cora gets the start in Game 3

Alex Cora will start at short stop today, instead of Jed Lowrie.

Huh?

Lowrie is 0-3 against Matt Garza and 0 for 6 with 3 walks and a sac fly RBI in the ALCS. Cora is 0-3 against Garza was well and hasn't started since Game 2 of the ALDS... I was having trouble undertanding this move, but a look at the Day/Night splits sheds some light on the subject (pun intended): Cora in daylight - .316 in 57 ABs ... Lowrie is a vampire - .184 in 76 ABs.

* * * *

Dan at Red Sox Monster has five reason to chillax about today's game...

Mike at Fenway West wants to know who kidnapped Sean Casey and Paul Byrd...

And Sox & Dawgs has a nice roundup of reactions to Game 2...

I want to blame Mike Timlin... but...

It's official. The Josh Beckett circa 2007 is gone. I don't know where he went... and I'm starting to wonder if he was really a robot from the future.

Beckett was handed a 2-0 lead before he even took the mound but gave it right back on a Longoria home run. Then Pedroia the Destroyah broke out of his slump wit ha solo shot, but Beckett gave that back also, coughing up a solo shot to Upton and a fifth run on a Crawford single. Cliff Floyd would add one more for good measure in the 4th and then things went to hell in the 5th.

The Destroyah, Youk and Bay all homered in the top of the inning, quieting the cowbells and grabbing a 6-5 lead. But Josh just didn't have it and once again he handed runs back to the Rays. And Lopez came in to retire the lefty Crawford, but gave up an RBI single on the first pitch... it just wasn't our night.

Dustin Pedroia (3-5, 2 HR, 4 R, 2 RBI), Kevin Youkilis (3-6, HR, 2 R, RBI) and Jason Bay (3-5, HR, 1 R, 4 RBI) did everything they could to win this game, but the Sox just couldn't put the nail in the coffin and when (as Surviving Grady put it) the human white flag known as Mike Timlin came out for the 11th, you knew this thing was over.

So, we split at the Trop... that's all many of us were hoping for. But an unsettling tend is developing...

The postseason magic has been sucked out of David Ortiz's bat. He's walking like a champ but he's just 4 for 23 (.174) with one extra base hit and 1 RBI in the playoffs.

Jacoby Ellsbury has become fielding practice for the opposing pitchers... he's 0 for his last 15 and seems to slap a soft hopper to the mound in every at-bat.

And Josh Beckett is cooked... and the Sox aren't telling us everything...

Bottom Line: These 3 guys carried us to the promise land in 2007. Now all three of them have been rendered useless. Lester, Youk and Bay have been the heroes of 2008, but if the Sox want a repeat, The Large Father needs to wake up and our lead off man needs to start bunting or something!

"We're not frustrated," Mike Timlin said. "You come down to somebody else's place and you split, we're still looking pretty good."

Okay Mikey... I'll roll with you for now... but only if you promise to stay in that bullpen next week, you got it!?

Be Afraid... Be Very Afraid

I Like Surprises...

It just goes to show you...

Just when you think you've got it all figured out, the baseball gods through you a gyroball.

Matsuzaka had decent numbers against the Rays and, as we mentioned on Friday, he seems to crank things up a notch when he's pitching in a dome, but who would have guessed, that Dice-K would take a no-hitter into the 7th inning last night?

Not me.

I'm pretty sure most of us expected Matsuzaka to be handing the ball over to Tito by the 6th inning at best, but the Diceman stepped up and locked horns with TBS's new favorite pitcher "Big Game James" for 7+ innings.

In typical Dice-K fashion, this near no-hitter was far from a walk in the park. Matsuzaka loaded the bases in the 1st, causing most of Red Sox Nation to roll their eyes with familiar frustration, but as always, Dice-K pulled yet another Houdini act and got out of the jam unscathed.

After that is was pretty smooth sailing, until the 7th, when Matsuzaka performed his best trick of the night: Carl Crawford broke up the no-no to lead off the inning and Cliff Floyd lined a single into left that put Crawford at third and the go-ahead run at the plate with no outs...

But did Dice-K crumble under the pressure? Nope. He simply willed Navarro to pop out to left, then made Gross look... well, gross... on a strikeout and then left Crawford at third with a puzzled look on his face when Bartlett grounded out to end the inning.

Poof! Rally over. Sorry Tampa... not this time.

This was Dice-K's night, but you can't win without a little offense, right? Enter Kevin Youkilis. Sure, Youk was 0 for his career against Shields, but you think this beard gives a crap about stats? Youk would go 3 for 4 on the night, but it was the RBI off of Howell in the 8th that gave the Sox a 2-0 lead and all but silenced the sound of cowbells in the Trop.

Youk came up huge last night, but some other kudos need to be handed out:

1. Jed Lowrie: Way to stay tough in the 5th and make sure we get at least one run out of that 2 on, nobody out scenario.

2. Mark Kotsay: I told you that half-swing move we've been practicing would pay off! I know it's a little unorthodox and the coaches hate it, but we caught 'em sleeping once and almost got that sneaky Iwamura the next time through...

3. Dustin Pedroia: Way to step up for Jacoby and swipe that bag in the 5th - that was huge! Seriously, Dave Roberts would be proud. Ells was probably just tired from chasing Tavarez around all last week... we really need to hide all the matches.

And last but not least: Paps. I'm pretty sure the Rays are still trying to figure out why they didn't walk off win another win last night... but they obviously forgot that you don't hand out runs in the postseason... just K's and tears.

Bottom Line: Admit it, most of you were hoping for a split at best this weekend, but we've got Game 1 in out pocket and Beckett going tonight... let's hope the boys remember how nice it felt to be up 2-0 against the Halos... at the very least, it will make it a lot easier to watch the Pats on Sunday night, right?

ALCS Game 1: Dice-K loves Domes...

“We’re going to have to wait him out and see how he’s throwing,” Rays third baseman Evan Longoria said. “Walks are so important, and if he’s going to come out and do what he normally does, he usually walks a ton of guys and throws a lot of pitches early. If we can get him on the ropes early, we’ve really got to take advantage of that.”

That's what Ray's 3B Evan Longoria had to say about facing Red Sox starter Diasuke Matsuzaka tonight in Game 1... and unfortunately you can't argue with the theory... but I'll try and dance around it.

Matsuzaka walked a league high 94 batters during the regular season, but still managed to win 18 games and lose only three. Amazingly, he was only erased from 8 decisions and the Red Sox won 5 of those games - proving that Matsuzaka could keep his team in the game despite walking tons of batters and struggling to pitch into the 6th inning.

That was exactly what happened in Game 2 of the ALDS against the Angels. Dice-K gave up 3 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks, while fanning 5, but needed 108 pitches to get through 5 innings. The Red Sox went on to win that game thanks to a 9th inning, 2-run ding dong from JD Drew.

The Sox will be hoping for a better performance from Dice-K tonight, and the numbers suggest that they will get it. Matsuzaka remains undefeated on the road this year and went 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 3 starts against the Rays this season. The lone victory came at the Trop, where Matsuzaka owns a 1.80 ERA and a .143 BAA.

:: Cue dancing music ::

Which leads us to to title of this post. Dice-K pitched most of his career in Japan indoors and was pretty successful... he's 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA and a .183 BAA on the fake stuff this year and 4-3 with a 3.09 ERA and .192 BAA in 11 games on turf since coming to America...

Longoria and the Rays will be looking for walks, but Matsuzaka will be in his element tonight, and if you think a few cowbells and blue mohawks are going to scare him, you've obviously never been to a baseball game in Japan.

All that said, Ray's ace James Shields has been pretty good on turf... and overall this season. Shields won 14 games this year and held opponents to 4 runs or less in 28 of 33 starts. He went 9-2 at the Trop with year and is 20-8 with a 3.32 ERA there in his career.

However, Shields is a modest 2-2 with a 5.85 ERA against the Red Sox this season and 2-4 lifetime. David Ortiz probably loves facing Shields more than anyone, he's 7 for 14 (.500) with 4 doubles, 2 homers and 6 RBI... and Dustin Pedroia's .500 BA against Shields could help him break out of his post season slump.

Bottom Line: I think my write up is pretty convincing, but I won't deny that Matsuzaka scares me. With the 2007 version of Josh Beckett apparently vacationing in Thailand, we need to win Game 1 and put the pressure on the Rays.

We take at least one out of the Trop and I like our chance with 3 straight games at Fenway.

Go Sox!

"Red Sox in Seven" - ALCS Prediction Roundup

There is a common theme running through Eric Wilbur's Prediction Roundup:

"Red Sox in Seven."

That's our pick here at The Bottom Line... That's Eric's pick... and but the Bottom Line readers think the Sox will take it in 6 (see poll). Have you voted yet?

* * *

Here are a few of the predictions, click here for more.

Boston Globe: Dan Shaughnessy, Nick Cafardo, and Amalie Benjamin pick the Sox in seven, while Adam Kilgore and Tony Massarotti like the Rays in six.

St. Petersburg Times staff: Marc Topkin and Gary Shelton pick the Rays in six. Joe Smith and Dave Scheiber go with Rays in seven. Brent James and John Romano both like the Sox in a series to go the distance.

I like this one inparticular:

Evan Grant, Dallas Morning News: Red Sox in seven. “Tampa Bay has played excellent baseball since the start of the season and stared down the Red Sox and Yankees to win the AL East. They have home-field advantage and won the season series 10-8. But it's impossible to argue against the Red Sox' postseason experience. The bullpen is in better shape. And there is no telling what kind of madness the Rays are going to experience at Fenway Park in October.”
* * *

It looks like we can all agree on one thing: This series is going to be intense... and it all begins tonight... check back this afternoon for a preview of the Dice-K vs Shields match-up.

Also - Click over to Surviving Grady for the latest episode of "The Adventures of Ellsbury and Elf" ... they kill me with this stuff.

Papelbon versus Balfour - Who ya got !?!

Some comments from the Boston Herald this morning...

"He’s a great closer," Balfour said. "There’s no doubt about it. When he comes into the game, it’s going to be tough to score runs. He’s proven that time and time again."

"But you can ask the guy sitting next to me, he got him one time. We’re not sold on the fact that when he comes in, it’s over. That’s for sure. We’ll fight to the end. I believe we can come back and win anytime, no matter who’s on the mound."

* * *

“It’s a whole different season now,” Papelbon said. “That’s like saying, ‘You got me last year, I’m going to get you this year.’ The playoffs are a whole new season, man.”

Bottom Line: The Herald reminds us:

And if the Rays are to unseat the Sox as AL champions, they’ll probably have to go where no team has gone before and get to Papelbon, who has yet to allow a run in the playoffs.

Ever.

If nothing else, the Rays have some balls...

First there was this:









Then there was this:














And now... this:














Bottom Line: Way to go from basbeall's feel good, Cindarella story to arrogant and unlikeable...

Red Sox v Rays: Top 5 Head-to-Head Match-ups

Just because these guys don't duke it out like Superman and Doomsday... doesn't mean we can't have a little fun breaking down the match-ups, right?

Starting off...

The Red Sox have the edge in experience, starting 4 pitchers with at least one postseason start under their belts... and a few with extremely good postseason numbers (Beckett and Lester). But the Rays' starting rotation includes 5 pitchers with 10+ wins and three of those guys have ERa's in the 3.50 area. The 1-2 punch of James Shields (160 Ks) and Scott Kazmir (166) pitched well in the ALDS and have thrived at home, combining to go 17-4 with a 2.75 ERA at the Trop. The key for the Red Sox will be the health and performance of Josh Beckett. He has been untouchable in the postseason, but labored through 5 innings in the ALDS, allowing 4 runs on 9 hits and 4 walks.

With Matsuzaka seemingly incapable of pitching through 6 innings and Beckett struggling, the Rays have the edge here, despite having never pitched in the postseason. Another key match-up will be Tim Wakefield vs Andy Sonnanstine... Game 4 could be a pivotal game for either team - Wake has postseason 6.63 ERA and "Sonny" blanked the Sox for 13 combined innings in September... not good.

AL Rookie of the Year Showdown

Longoria hit .272 with 27 homers and 85 RBI in 122 games and seemed to rejuvenate a struggling Rays lineup with his return from the DL in September. Longoria smacked two home runs in his first ever playoff game, but that was the extent of his damage against the Chi-Sox: 4-15 (.267), 2 HR, 3 RBI, 6 Ks ... Ellsbury finished the season at .280 thanks to a .340 September. For the second season in a row Ellsbury has kicked it into over drive when it matters most: In 2007 he batted .361 in September and .360 in the playoffs. So far this postseason, Jacoby is 6 for 18 (.33) with 3 doubles, 6 RBI and 6 stolen bases.

One could argue that whichever rookies leads their team to the World Series will likely win the AL Rookie of the Year Award...

Battle of the Bullpens

The Ray's middle relievers may be their biggest strength... and the Sox bullpen had Red Sox Nation nervous through most of the regular season. But Justin Masterson's emergence as a reliever seemed to stabilize the Boston bullpen. Okajima settled down, Manny Delcarmen found his groove and Masterson became the unofficial setup man for Papelbon. Masterson had a few scary moments against the Angels, but over all this group is solid... problem is, the Ray's bullpen may be even better ... Grant Balfour has been a machine for the Rays, posting a 1.54 ERA during the regular season while fanning a staggering 82 batters in 58.1 innings of work. In three playoff appearances, he's allowed juts 2 hits while striking out 4 in 3.1 innings. JP Howell has been ever better, fanning 6 in 4.1 innings of work and matching Balfour's 0.00 ERA. And Chad Bradford and Dan Wheeler have been solid while bringing some experience to a young squad.

In a series that promises to be well pitched and extremely intense, the success or failure of the bullpens could determine the outcome.

Speed Kills

In the past, the Red Sox have struggled on the "fake stuff" due to a lack of speed, but Tito says that's a thing of the past:

"I used to think it was fairly obvious when we were slower," Francona said. "When we'd get on turf, teams that could run and we couldn't, we were at a disadvantage at times. I don't feel that way anymore. We're built differently. But our record is not that good. I'm hopeful that that's going to change."

Both teams have three guys with 20+ swipes: Rays - Jason Bartlett (20), Carl Crawford (25 in 109 games) and BJ Upton (44) ... Red Sox: Dustin Pedroia (20), Coco Crisp (20) in 118 games, and Jacoby Ellsbury (50).

Home Sweet Home

The Rays were 57-24 at The Trop this season... the Red Sox were 56-25 at Fenway. And as if that wasn't already too close to call, the Rays went 40-41 on the road, while the Sox went 39-42. Tampa Bay won the season series 10-8 and will host Game 6 and 7 if it goes that far... that's why Games 3, and 5 will be crucial to the Red Sox.



Bonus Match-up: David Ortiz vs Carlos Pena. Both of these guys represent the power on their respective teams. We could see more than a few catwalk shots from these two before all is said and done... nothing rallies the troops like the long ball.

Bottom Line: The Red Sox went 1-8 at Tropican Field and 7-17 in domes this year... we do not want to play any more games there than we have to.

VIDEO: Tony Mazz breaks down the ALCS matchup

Get more video from the Globe reporters here.

Bottom Line: Tony's right, much like the Angels, the Rays have a very solid bullpen - that apparently includes The Incredible Hulk...

If we're trailing or close come the 6th or 7th, it's going to be a battle to put any late game runs on the board. This will be particularly important in Game 1 with Dice-K not likely to make it past the 6th inning. We need early leads and we need to keep these Rays from mounting late game comebacks like they did throughout the regular season.

We had a flair for the dramatic in the ALDS, but we didn't see much of that during the regular season... if too many of these games come down to walk offs and 8th inning rallies, the Sox could be in trouble.

Thoughts?

The smartest thing Tim McCarver ever said: "Manny is despicable."

From ESPN.com:

"It's extraordinary -- the dichotomy between what he was in Boston and what he is in Los Angeles," McCarver said, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. "I mean, talk about wearing out your welcome in a town, and it was a long welcome with the Red Sox. But some of the things he did were simply despicable, despicable -- like not playing, refusing to play. Forgetting what knee to limp on. And now it's washed, it's gone."

---

"A rejuvenated Manny, I think it would be fair to say," McCarver said, according to the Inquirer. "More than old Manny. Manny's doing things that even Manny doesn't do, [like] scoring on a double to right field from first base.

"It's a wonderful story in many, many ways, and from Boston's standpoint, it's a horrible story, I would imagine, because he could be doing that for Boston."

Get the full video interview here.

UPDATED Bottom Line: After posting this I felt like I had become one of those annoying Manny-bashing Red Sox fans that can't move on... so I wanted to clarify thatI am not a Manny hater and I am thankful for all the hitting he did here in Boston. That said, McCarver's point was that his antics before the trade were a disgrace - and I agree. And that's what this post is all about... a rare moment in which I agree with what Tim McCarver is saying.

And apparently I'm not alone on this one.

Red Sox ALCS rotation set; Matsuzaka to start Game 1

Terry Francona announced the rotation for the ALCS:

Game 1: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Game 2: Josh Beckett
Game 3: Jon Lester
Game 4: Tim Wakefield
Game 5*: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Game 6*: Josh Beckett
Game 7*: Jon Lester
(*if necessary)

"The way it lined up was appropriate, Tito said. "Again, for us, those three will pitch twice if it goes to seven. In the end, as long as they’re pitching, the order isn’t as important. So then you go, ‘OK. What’s best for them?’"

"It gives people rest – not too much rest, not too little. This is probably the best way. We didn’t want one going on eight [days rest], one guy going on regular. Keep everybody somewhat in line. Rest at this time of year is huge. We’ll take advantage of it while trying not to give too much."

Bottom Line: I like Lester at home in Game 3... I'm nervous about Daisuke in Game 1 but his numbers are respectable againts the Rays... and I'm nervous about Wake vs the Rays as of late (0-2, 5.83 ERA in 3 starts this year)... but he'll throw in Fenway where he has been more successful this season: 7-4, 3.10 ERA.

ALCS Schedule

Game 1: Friday, Oct. 10, 8:37 p.m. (at Tampa Bay)
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 11, 8:07 p.m. (at Tampa Bay)

Game 3: Monday, Oct. 13, 4:37 p.m. (at Boston)
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 14, 8:07 p.m. (at Boston)
Game 5*: Thursday, Oct. 16, 8:07 p.m. (at Boston)

Game 6*: Saturday, Oct. 18, 4:37 p.m. if NLCS is still being played; 8:07 p.m. if not (at Tampa Bay)

Game 7*: Sunday, Oct. 19, 8:07 p.m. (at Tampa Bay)

* - if necessary

11 reason to root for the Rays; 5 reason to root for the Red Sox

Epic Carnival posted their Top 11 reasons to root for the Rays during the post season... As we gear up for what will certainly be an intense series with Tampa Bay, I thought it would be fun to share the list with The Bottom Line Nation...

The Rays List:

11. By losing the Devil from their name and becoming good, they make your older relatives think that something in the world still makes sense

10. There's a reasonable chance that you might be the most famous Rays fan

9. They are so young, the average player is only making 10 times your annual salary, not 100 - [ Evan Longoria turned 23 on Oct. 7th, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, BJ Upton and Dioner Navarro are 24... Carl Crawford is a seasoned veteran at 27 ]

8. With so many pro wrestlers in the fan base, not rooting for them might result in a chair shot - [ Who doesn't love the Hulkster, right? ]

7. This may be your last chance to root for an Upton without wincing

6. It's not like the other AL playoff teams are in any way redeemable - [ Not sure how to take this one. I guess the Sox are on their way to be hates like the Yankees of he 90's and NE Patriots of today - see No. 5 ]

5. Thanks to MLB's refusal to share revenue in any meaningful way, there's no chance they'll become a tiresome dynasty

4. Their god-awful Wacky Stadium brings back warm and fuzzy memories of bad multi-purpose stadiums from the past (Olympique, Kingdome, Astrodome) - [ Personally, I don't see this as a rason to root for the Rays... unless the hope is that a large fan base will force the old geezers in Florida to approve that cool new stadium the Rays deserve... ]

3. Many of their players aren't old enough to drink the liquor they are spraying

2. Until very recently , an incredibly economical jersey purchase

1. Every time a Mets Fan sees Scott Kazmir, he dies a little more inside

Bottom Line: If the Red Sox weren't in the mix, I'd be rooting for the Rays. It's a great story and lobve the parody they bring to the AL East... Yes, even Red Sox fans can get sick of the Sox and Yankees year after year... okay - just the Yankees.

Just like Angels series, this 7 game match-up is going to be exciting and intense... and to be honest, I'm a little nervous. But the Road to a Repeat has already been waaaaay more exciting than the collapse of the Cubs and the Phillies trouncing of the Brew Crew... and I'm looking forward to facing the Rays.

Here are my Top 5 Reasons the Red Sox are not a "non-redeemable, tired dynasty."

5. The road to the ALCS was not an easy one for the Red Sox. They've battled through multiple injuries to their "ace," then there was the Manny Saga, and they started their season in Japan. You can't say they haven't earned the right to be here... although John Lackey tried to.

4. The kids. It feels like Jacoby Ellsbury has been here for years, but he's actually in his rookie season and was a huge part of their September surge. Jed Lowrie replaced Julio Lugo at short and had the series winning hit last night. Justin Masterson went from successful starter to dependable set-up man after starting his 2008 season in Double A Portland.

3. Jason Bay. The guy had to replace Manny Ramirez, and the pressure just got more intense when the Sox earned a playoff spot. But while Manny continued to talk smack from LA, Bay quietly hit .293 with the Sox and cracked two ding dongs in his first two post season games... and then scored the winning run last night.

If you don't love this story, then your just plain dead inside.

2. Theo Epstein and the "Red Sox Way." Sure the Sox have an endless well of money, but Theo's philosophy has always been about breeding great players in the minors. This borderline dynasty was not built with cash, it was built on the success of kids like Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon, Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis, Jed Lowrie and Jon Lester.

1. Speaking of Jon Lester... If the Rays are the number one story in baseball, Jon Lester is 1A. If you're a Sox fan, I don't need to say anything else...

Top 5 Moments of the Sox v Angels series

Here are my top 5 moments from the ALDS series between the Red Sox and the Angels... we're Sox fans here at The Bottom Line, so don't expect to see Aybar's RBI single from Game 3 on the list.

Number 5

JD Drew's ninth inning homer in Game 2. We put four on the board in the first, but Dice-K and the bullpen let the Angles creep back into the game. With the score notched at 5 and the leagues best closers locking horns, the game looked destined for extra frames... but Big Papi stroked a double to lead off the 9th and visions of another K-Rod collapse started flashing before our eyes.

Enter JD Drew, he of the 4 at-bats since August 17th. Drew had already grabbed two hits in the game, but his third hit was a 2-run shot to center that seemed to instantly crush the hopes and prayers of Rally Monkeys everywhere.

K-Rod blew it again... and now the Red Sox seemed destined to sweep the Angles for a third straight time in the playoffs.

Number 4

Jason Bay's home run in Game 1. Beckett was hurt. Lester's road numbers were mediocre at best. And Lackey looked sharp out of the gate. But Jason Bay's rock shot put the pressure on the Halos and gave Lester and the bullpen the edge they needed to close things out. Oh and it was his first playoff game... ever... not too shabby.

That win put all the pressure on the Angels... they battled the entire series, but it was ours to lose from Bay's homer on out.





Number 3

Jon Lester's performance in the series. 14 innings, 0.00 ERA, 11 Ks and he retired every lead off man he faced. The Josh Beckett of 2007 is nowhere to be found (a scary though as we head into the ALCS) but Jon Lester took the reigns and kicked ass.

Remy said in the NESN post game show that he remembers Management saying that they had Lester ranked higher than Papelbon when he was in the minors... how's everyone feeling about that Santana deal now...???





Number 2

Jed Lowrie's RBI single to drive home Jason Bay in Game 4. Scott Shields was mowing us down like little leaguers, but Bay's double clearly annoyed him. Both Kotsay and Lowrie swung at the first pitch, so it's tough to tell if he was rattled, but who really cares. Lady Luck was smiling on us and crapping on the Halos... and John Lackey is pissed about it... talk about your sore losers!



Number 1

Tek's rundown of Reggie Willits in Game 4. You could argue that Lowrie's RBI single should be No. 1, but that would have merely tied the game if Tek wasn't able to tag Willit's out. As I said earlier - I challenge anyone to try and rundown Willits with 15 lbs of gear on after catching 9 innings of baseball in 45 degree weather.

Jason - You're .220 batting average is officially forgiven.




Bottom Line: That play summed up the series for the Angels. They took too many chances and it caught up with them.

And the "Also Good Award" goes to... Kevin Youkilis and Mark Kotsay for playing insanely good baseball at the corners. Youk gunning down Vladdy... Kotsay's two catches in Game 4... Youk's seamless transition from 1B to 3B in Game 4 ... shall I go on?

And Jonathan Papelbon's performance in the series. He gave up the game tying sac fly to Teixeria in Game 2, but he closed out the ninth and then came back and pitched his ass off in Game 3... striking out Matthews with two men on in the 11th was unbelievable.

Papelbon douses Sager's ugly suit

Thanks to Red Sox Monster for the video.

Angels commit suicide; Red Sox win ALDS!

So much to say... so little time. So I'm just gonna make a list of awesomeness from last night's game.

1. Jon Lester. That's it. He's awesome. 14 innings, 0.00 ERA, 11 Ks. John Lackey fought him tooth and nail in both games, but Lester never gave in. He got the leadoff man out every single time and made some ridiculous pitches like to called third strike on Teixeria to end the 5th.

Remy summed it up last night in the postgame: "I wouldn't trade Lester for Johan Santana straight up right now." Amen.



2. Jason Varitek's tag on Wilits in the 9th. I know I shouldn't be surprised that Scioscia called for the squeeze, but I was and Tek made what might be the play of his career here in Boston. Raise your hand if you think you can out run Reggie Wilits with 15 lbs of gear on? Thought so.

Oh and Tek's full count, single that got Kotsay to third? The guy batted .220 this year and was 2 for 12 in the ALDS before that hit, but that was awesome.


3. Speaking of Kotsay. Someone recently tried to tell me that keeping an injured Mike Lowell at 3rd still gave us the best possible defensive lineup... I laughed then and after Kotsay and Youk's fielding display last night, I'm chuckling even more. Is Lowell a Gold Glove winner? Yes. But he was useless out there.

Kotsay made two great plays at 1B last night and made them look easy. The boys at NESN even wondered if Youk could have made that sliding grab he made in foul territory. And Youk? Well, all he did was slide over the 3B and make all the plays, including that sqib down the line by Hunter... and he's done it all series.


4. Jason Bay. The guy hasn't played meaningful baseball since college, but in his first postseason he hits two ding dongs and scores the game winning run in the 9th to beat the Halos. Manny who?




5. Dustin Pedroia. He was probably the most frustrated guy in the team heading into last night's game, but as the TBS crew reported he got to the park early and practiced bunting to tighten up his hand-eye coordination. Seems strange, but he got that elusive hit in the 5th, puting another dent in the Monster and putting the Sox on the board.

“You can’t keep a good man down.” he said during the pregame warm-ups...



6. Jed Lowrie. If you had told me that Lowrie would hit .364 and drive in the series winning run in the ALDS I would have "anything's possible" and then called the local loony bin. But that is indeed what happened. Strong work Jed.





7. Terry Francona. All four games were won or lost by two runs of less. Mike Scioscia is a great manager and he and his players made things very difficult for Tito and the Sox. Some might argue that Scioscia out managed Tito in Game 3 when he went to Weaver while Francona went with Lopez, but over all, Tito used used his pitchers well, he had some very tough decisions to make with Lowell and Drew and when the smoke cleared, the Sox were victorious and the Angels lost - again.

Bottom Line: This was a great series to watch and not having to fly back to Cali is huge. But we can expect more of the same from the Rays, so lets hope these guys get their rest...

More to come after I wake up a bit.

ALDS Game 4: Tonight Lester proves he's the ace

Let's keep it simple here people:

Jon Lester is 11-1 at Fenway with a .249 ERA.

John Lackey is 2-4 in 8 starts at the Fens with a 6.34 ERA.

Both guys pitched very well in Game 1. Lackey's one mistake to Jason Bay proved to be the difference. I'm hoping for a few more mistakes tonight.

If you're curious to hear what Angels fans are feeling this afternoon, Centerfield has a nice collection of blog posts and articles ... Extra Bases also has a few comments from Lester regarding his success at Fenway ... and Tony Mazz talked with Mike Lowell who apparently is even more banged up than he was before:

"Check this out," Lowell said quietly, revealing an unsightly purple bruise the size of a softball on his right hamstring. "I don't even know how it got there."

Bottom Line: Tonight, I'm looking for a lot less of this:













And lot more of this:












And this:

















Go Sox.

ps. Dustin Pedroia will be tonight's hero. He's 5 for 12 with 2 doubles against Lackey and he's loooooong over due.

I'm on no sleep... NO SLEEP!

Have you ever fought off sleep for so long that your body eventually assumes that it's not going to get it's daily reboot, so it just goes back to keeping you awake?

That was me somewhere around the 7th inning last night.

Josh Beckett's continued communication problems with Tek had last night's game going at a Matsuzaka-like pace and the game seemed to be stuck at 4-4 for what felt like an eternity. But I refused to give in. The Sox were going to sweep and I was not going to miss it.

So I went to-to-toe with the Sandman while the bullpens exchanged blows and when Coco did his best Dave Roberts impression in the 11th I was awake and ready for Jacoby to drive him home and start dream of brooms dancing in a field daises. But it was not to be. As Surviving Grady reminds us, young Jacoby chose to show up the ump on a tough pitch and then got rung up on a pitch that almost went into the Angels dugout.

But I was cool with that because Pedroia was soooo overdue for a hit. He got the hit, but Chone Figgins mad a very nice backhanded play to rob our Little Pony of an RBI single... and the Halos went on to "manufacture" the game winning run in the 12th. (I'm so sick of hearing about how good they are at manufacuring runs and going first to third)

Bottom Line: This really should have been a 9-inning 4-1 loss, but Jacoby's 3-run bloop seemed to solidify that the Angels were simply destined to lose to us. Now their destiny is in the hand of Jon Lester... the real ace of this ball club.

I like our chances tonight, but it'd be nice if Lackey had one of his Fenway meltdowns and we put it out of reach early...

ps. I feel you Paps... I feel you.

ALDS Game 3: Beckett ready to sweep the Angels away

Josh Beckett (12-10, 4.03 ERA )

Terry Francona made it official today; Josh Beckett is the Game 3 starter.

“He’s pitching,” manager Terry Francona said before the Red Sox [team stats]’ 7-5 win over the Angels in Game 2 last night. “I think we kind of needed to go about it the way we did. Rather than hold him down and hope, I think we needed to let him go - rather than pitch today and hoping.

“His week was important to him - the long-toss, the side. He threw a 67-pitch side, which is pretty extensive. He needs to know in his head, in his mind, that he can go out and do what he needs to do to win. And now he does, so I think we all feel better about it.”

Josh is 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA against the Halos in his career. The last time he saw the Angels was on July 19th (my B-day!) but despite fighting through 8 innings, Beckett gave up 4 runs on 8 hits and took the loss. But that was in July.

Beckett was cruising through September looking ready to kick ass an take names through the payoffs before coming back to earth in his regular season finale - a 3-4 loss to Cleveland. But over all the numbers were exciting: just under 6 K's per game, a 2.16 ERA and .096 WHIP that proved the Commander was in complete command.

Th oblique injury is a concern, but with Beckett feeling healthy and confident, the Sox are primed for yet another sweep of the Angels... and you know it's in their heads.

Joe Saunders (17-7, 3.41 ERA)

The Halos will look to Saunders to keep stop the bleeding. And he may be just the guy to do it. In six starts, the southpaw is 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA against Boston. Saunders faced the Red Sox twice back in July and held them to 2 runs in both matchups while lasting 6+ innings each time.

Saunders was also solid down the stretch while Lackey and Santana struggled in their final outings... he went 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 24 Ks in 33.2 September innings.

Saunders looks like he has the stuff to keep the Angels alive, but here's a fun factoid that could even the playing field: The Boston Red Sox are batting an MLB best .294 against lefties this season. And Jason Bay, who already has 2 homers in the ALDS is leading the team with a .362 BA against southpaws.

Bottom Line: I've got my broom ready, do you?

ALDS Game 2: Can Dice-K remain perfect on the road?

Ervin Sanatana (16-7, 3.49)

Like Lackey, Santana had a solid season but struggled in his final start - giving 8 runs on 10 hits (2 homers) through 5+ innings in an 8-4 loss to the Rangers.

Lackey didn't exactly implode again on Wednesday and Santana probably won't either, but the pressure will be on the young righty in what some are calling a must win game for the Halos.

Sanatana was famous for his home/away splits in 2007, posting a 1-10, 8.38 ERA line on the road, while pitching well in LA: 6-4, 3.27 ERA. He managed to exercise his road demons this year and was actually pretty nasty away from home: 11-2, 3.02 ERA... but his home numbers regressed: 5-5, 4.03 ERA... and that good for the Red Sox.

The long ball is partially to blame for Santana's troubles at home. For whatever reason, he's given up 15 ding dongs in 102 innings (.147) at home, while surrendering 8 homers in 116 innings (.069) on the road. David Ortiz is the only Boston player with a homer against Sanatana, but it comes with a .556 BA, two doubles and three RBI... This may the night Big Papi flaunts the postseason magic we've come to expect from him.

Mark Kotsay is 7-18 (.389) lifetime against Sanatana, it with Tito hinting at the idea of resting Mike Lowell, we may see him get the start and bump Youk over to 3B.

The Red Sox did not face Sanatana this year, so it's tough to predict what will happen... and there's also that whole "the regular season means nothing thing" - just look at my predictions for Jon Lester...

Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.90 ERA)

Howie Kendrick, the goat of Game 1 in some Angels' fans minds, has the right idea in regards to facing Matsuzaka:

"He has to throw you a strike, and being patient and letting him work a little bit is going to be huge for us,” Angels infielder Howie Kendrick said.

Dice-K has failed to complete six innings in 14 of his 29 starts and lead the AL with 94 walks. He pitched fewer than six innings in each of his four postseason starts last year. You'd think the Angels’ typically aggressive approach at the plate would help, but it hasn’t in the past. In two career starts against Los Angeles - one on July 28 and the other in last year’s division series - he has allowed nine runs and 14 hits in 9 2-3 innings, going 0-1.

But Daisuke knows what he's doing and despite the walks and short outings he earned the victory in 18 of his 29 starts this year and the Red Sox won 23 of those 29 games. Dice-K also seems to buckle down when he's on the road. His WHIP is lower: 1.16 v 1.46... his ERA is lower 2.37 v 3.34... and batters are hitting just .178 against this away from Fenway.

Bottom Line: The pressure is on the Angels to recover with a split before they head to Boston... advantage Red Sox.

Football Friday: Redemption is a dish best served "gold"

Okay that title is a little lame, but if you read Eric Wibur's Prediction Roundup, there's one common theme throughout:

The Patriots were embarrassed by the Dolphins and the 49ers are gonna pay for it this week.

The Patriots defense was ranked in the Top 5 or better coming into this season, and despite allowing 38 points to the Dolphins and having one less game on the books due to the bye, they're still ranked 8th in the NFL in points allowed per game (19.3).

Factor that in with JT O'Sullivan's league leading 19 sacks and a Patriots defense ready to prove that last game's meltdown was a fluke... and you might see JT carried off on a stretcher before half time.

The Niners are pretty average on defense: 118 RYPG (15th) and 216 PYPG (13th). With Randy Moss looking for more targets and an extra week to prep, some are predicting that Matt Cassel will be let off the leash and the Pats will by flinging the ball all over the place on Sunday.

I disagree.

The 49ers held Kurt Warner and the dynamic WR duo of Boldin and Fitzgerald to 197 yards and 1 TD in Week 1. In week 2, the Seahawks put up 30 points, but Matt Hsasselbeck was held to 187 yds, 2 INTs and zero TDs - all his receivers were hurt, but still... all the offense came on the ground. In week 3, the Niners held the Lions to 13 points and 146 passing yards. Mike Martz's knowledge of the system and personnel probably helped, but do you see a trend here...? Finally, in Week 4, the Niners defense met their match, The Saints, who throw it more and better than any other team in the NFL. Drew Brees threw for 363 and 3 TDs, so the question is:

Did the 49ers defense get exposed or did the simply run into the best passing game in the league?

I lean towards the latter.


Matt Cassel, despite having weapons like Moss, Welker, Gaffeny and Faulk, is not Drew Brees. Belechick and Pioli know this. They also know that they have a very balanced team, capable of running the ball, going deep and connecting over the middle. This is the approach I expect on Sunday. A controlled, systematic attack that will feature all of the weapons. Will they try going deep to Moss? You bet. Is Wes Welker gonna eat them up underneath? Of course. Are Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris going to keep the Niners off balance by sliding out of the backfield for short passes? I'd bet my house on it.

Frank Gore is gonna run for some yardage, but the Pats will do what they do best - bend, but not break - and that means field goals and punts. I also expect O'Sullivan to be hurried or on the ground for much of this game... it's hard to score from the ground.

Bottom Line: The Patriots don't want or need to prove that they can light up the score board. What they want to prove is that they're still a dangerous "TEAM" even without Brady. I expect a team effort that inspires memories of the 2001 squad - everyone will be involved.

Bottom Line Prediction: Patriots 27, 49ers 13

Fire Brand's Blogger Roundtable

This week's question for Sox Bloggers:

How will Josh Beckett’s move back to Game 3 starter affect the team?

See what the rest of the Sox Bloggers had to say at Fire Brand... here's me:

The Bottom Line response:

I may be eating crow when this posts on Thursday, but the I think Beckett’s injury will hurt us because Jon Lester will be forced to start Game 1 on the road (5-5, 4.09), rather than start Game 3 at Fenway (11-1, 2.49). When Beckett was cruising, it looked like the stars were aligned for another Halos sweep, but this changed everything...

Bottom Line: Hopefully we split in LA and take 2 at Fenway behind a healthy Beckett, but if those goes to 5 games… I don’t care what the numbers say, I don’t feel good about Dice-K in a do or die match-up with the Angels.

Crow was officially on the lunch menu today. Lester looked great, and pushed his way into the 7th... Suddenly another sweep seems possible, but it will take a low walks, 6 inning effort from Dice-K and a healthy Josh Beckett this weekend.

But if it goes to 4 games... I will never doubt Jon Lester again.

It's official: Mike Lowell needs to be shut down

Mike Lowell winced his way through two ground outs, a fly out and a strike out last night. Lowell's been telling us that he feels fine in the batters box and said he felt good after fielding grounders before last night game, but after watching him flop around on check swings and hobble down the first base after hitting groundballs, it's clear that he is going to do more harm than good if he remains in the starting lineup.

Due to a glitch in the Matrix... see Mike's post-game interview at NESN.com - by clicking HERE.

Everyone one of these games has the chance to be a 1-0 squeaker and it's only a matter of time before Lowell's inability to run results in an inning ending or rally killing double play or ground out. I'm also shocked that Chone Figgins didn't test Mike Lowell once last night with a bunt... We saw what happened the last time Lowell tried to field a ground on the run. Figgins went o for 5 on the night, so don't be surprised to see the speed Figgins try it against Dice-K and start wreaking havoc on the bases.

The argument has been that our best defensive lineup has Youk at first, Lowell at third and Lowrie at short, but we're not talking about a Gold Glove winning Mike Lowell - we're talking about no lateral movement Mike Lowell.

Bottom Line: Sean Casey may not be Wally West out of the box, but he's more capable of breaking up the double play and probably has a little more pop in the bat right now than Mikey does.

I know we're up 1-0, but this is another example of Tito's undying loyalty to his veterans and it may bite him in the ass before this series is over...

All that said, he did make this play - which was huge:

Super Jacoby leads Sox to Game 1 victory

The Red Sox brought the feisty last night. Just look at Jacoby's face during this interview... or his reaction to making that amazing catch in the 8th... or Jason Bay's rare sign of emotion (a bat flip and a little whoot!) after he hit the two run homer run in the 6th.

You could tell the Sox were ready to take this game one way or another and they did.

It started with another solid performance by Jon Lester. The Angels grabbed some hit early on, but Lester managed to retire the first batter he faced in all seven innings, and held the Angels' speedy lead off man Chone Figgins to an 0-5 night.

“We had some chances early, and couldn’t get some hits to fall in,” Angels manager Mike Scioscia said. “Lester was on his game. He’s having a terrific year. He’s got a great arm and his velocity was up a bit from earlier in the year and he was able to get the fastball on both sides of the plate.”

The Angels were able to score the game's first run, but John Lackey forgot the Jason Bay loves high fastballs... and Bay took it deep, giving the Sox a 2-1 lead. What I loved most about Bay's ding dong was the bat flip. Manny had hit a homer un early that day, so it was great to see Jason step up and prove that we don't need Manny to win in the postseason...

“I think we proved a lot,” Bay said.

Indeed you did Jason.

But the star of the game was Jacoby Ellsbury. He did it all, going 3-5 (although Remy thinks the error on Anderson will be converted into a triple upon review) and stealing two bases on the night. He also gave the Sox two extra insurance runs in the 9th with and RBI single and a run scored on Ortiz's single to center... oh and he made one of the greatest catches in postseason history to preserve the 2-1 lead.

Bottom Line: I spent alot of time talking about Lester's road record this week, but he stepped up like Tito knew he would. Winning the first game in a 5 game series is huge. The pressure is all on the Halos now and with Dice-K perfect record on the road: 9-0, 2.37 ERA, .178 BAA... the Halos have to be nervous.

More notes and video to follow...

Red Sox roster set, Lowell and Drew expected to play

From Extra Bases:

PITCHERS

Starters
Jon Lester (L)
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Josh Beckett

Relievers
Tim Wakefield
Paul Byrd
Javier Lopez (L)
Manny Delcarmen
Hideki Okajima (L)
Justin Masterson
Jonathan Papelbon

POSITIONAL PLAYERS

Projected starting lineup
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
Dustin Pedroia, 2B
David Ortiz, DH
Kevin Youkilis, 1B
Jason Bay, LF
Mike Lowell, 3B
J.D. Drew, RF
Jason Varitek, C
Jed Lowrie, SS

Bench
Mark Kotsay, IF-OF (L)
Coco Crisp, OF (S)
Sean Casey, 1B (L)
Alex Cora, IF (L)
Kevin Cash, C (R)
David Ross, C (R)

A couple of notes: The Sox seem more concerned about the health of Lowell than that of Drew, which leaves open the possibility that Youkilis may need to move to third at some point. If that happens, look for Kotsay to play first base as he is the better defender. Lowell’s health remains one of the great variables in this series, even if he can only play five innings a night.

"Because of who [Mike] is and how he plays the game, we want to give him a chance to play the game," Francona said sports radio WEEI's "The Dale and Holley Show" shortly before the roster was announced.

By carrying a third catcher, the Sox suggest that they will hit for Varitek if and when the situation calls for it. Francona has refrained from doing so during the regular season, but the postseason is obviously a different matter. If necessary, the Sox could subsequently hit for Cash and put in Ross, who is regarded as a solid defensive catcher.

"You put the roster in best position where [it] can succeed," Francona told WEEI. "You have to consider, 'Does a third catcher allow you to pinch run, to pinch hit?' It puts you in a position to maximize your roster."

Bottom Line: My biggest concern with both Lowell and Drew is that they will struggle in the field... something we can't afford with the small ball Halos running the bases.

Look for Tito to make some early defensive changes with guys like Coco and maybe even Youk if Lester can hold a lead through 6 or 7 innings.

Photo: Boston Globe

ALDS Game 1: Lester v Lackey

John Lackey (12-5, 3.75 ERA)

John Lackey does not have great numbers against the Red Sox. He's 3-6 with a 5.54 ERA and a .305 BAA in 13 starts against Boston, but the numbers were actually much worse before Lackey grabbed two wins in two starts against the Sox this year.

Back in July, Lackey faced the Sox twice over an 11 day period and looked sharp despite a 6.06 ERA for the month. On the 18th he went 7 innings, allowing 3 runs on 5 hits (2 HRs) while fanning 6 in an 11-3 Angels win... then on the 29th he took a no-hitter in to the 9th before Pedroia broke it up with a single. Youk followed that with a home run, but the Sox lost 6-2.

But that was then. Since grabbing his 9th win of the season on the 29th, Lackey is just 3-3 in his last 10 starts and most recently got shelled by the Texas Rangers in his final start of the regular season. The Angels ace allowed 10 runs on 12 hits through 2.2 innings, but some Halos fans are choosing to brush that game off as a "meaningless tune up" for the playoffs.

The Angels coaches aren't too worried either:

Neither Angels pitching coach Mike Butcher nor manager Mike Scioscia is worried by that.

“I look at the track record of the whole season and the way they’ve pitched,” Butcher said. “I’m not making any excuses. Every time you go out there, you want to be at your best but sometimes it doesn’t happen. As long as their arms are healthy, their velocity is fine, I’m not concerned.

“I’ve never been a believer that you can turn it on and off like a switch. But I know they’ll be ready when it’s time to take the ball in the playoffs.”

Scioscia echoed Butcher’s assessment of the final pre-playoff tune-ups, saying both Lackey’s and Santana’s “stuff still looked good” but they ran up against a Rangers’ lineup that “was not very forgiving” when they made mistakes.

“I think if their velocity was down and they struggled making their pitches, then you’d be concerned,” Scioscia said. “But that wasn’t the case."

They may not be worried, but I'll just throw this factoid out - just for fun:

John Lackey has given up 26 ding dongs in 24 starts this year - coughing up 2 homers a gmea on eight different occasions... With Ortiz, Bay, Youk, Pedroia and maybe even Drew and Lowell capable of going deep at any time - I'd be a little worried.

For more from the land of Rally Monkeys and small ball - check out the Halos Heaven's "Around the Halosphere."

Jon Lester (16-6, 3.21 ERA)

Lester has been our most consistent starter this year and if this game was being played in Fenway I'd be celebrating already... but it's not. As good as Jon has been this year, he has continually struggled on the road: 5-5, 4.09 ERA, .275 BAA.

He did manage to hold down the Yankees back on Aug. 28th (6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K) but Toronto beat him up pretty bad in the other two of the his last three road starts (16 H, 12 ER, 9.1 IP, 2 losses). Mixed in between however were a number of shutout and one-run performances, so it's really tough to predict how he will do tonight.

Lester's struggles on the road are a concern, but his numbers against the Halo's are also troublesome: 1-1 in 4 starts, 33 hits and 17 ER in just 19+ innings, and a a .393 BAA.

But before we send anyone to the edge of the Tobin Bridge, we need only look at Lester's performance in the 2007 World Series to remember that this kid is not phased by the pressure. Last year he blanked the Rockies through 5+ inning on his way to a Game 4 victory, and he may be even stronger both mentally and physically this year.

Tito told WEEI that he has complete faith in Lester... and so should we.

Bottom Line: Another sweep of the Angels would be amazing, but we really only need to split these two road games. If we come back to Fenway with a win in our pockets, I have no doubt we will close the series out at home with Beckett and Lester.

Here are few thoughts of the ALDS from our friends:

Dan at Red Sox Monster has his fearless predictions.

Ryan at Fire Brand has his series preview from behind enemy lines.

And if you need to get yourslef pumped up for the 10 o'clock start head over to Centerfield for some video that's sure to have you waking up the neighbors around game time.

Boom Goes The Family Guy

The "Boom Goes The Dynanmite" kid of You Tube fame has taken the next step on his way to greatness... a shout-out on Family Guy.



Hat Tip to The World of Isaac for the video.

If you've never seen this, the dynamite goes boom around 2:30...