Breaking down Japan's free agent pitchers

ESPN's Jim Allen took a look at five players planning to jump from Japan to the majors this offseason. With all this talk about Tazawa, I thought it would be worth posting his thoughts and his comparisons to the other Japanese pitchers eyeing a roster spot with a major league club:

The safest bet in the group is Chunichi Dragons ace Kenshin Kawakami, 33. He is followed by Yomiuri Giants ace Koji Uehara, also 33, an intriguing right-hander.

"The question is how they're going to react to pitching every fifth day," said Marty Brown, who has been managing the Hiroshima Carp since 2006.

Daisuke Matsuzaka's numbers reflect this concern. In his first year with the Red Sox Dice-K was 15-12 with a 4.40 ERA, but with an extra year to adjust, Matsuzaka cut his ERA in half (2.90) and won 18 games while only losing 3 in 2008.

Scouts Isao Ojimi of the New York Mets and Steve Wilson of the Chicago Cubs said Kawakami, who was 9-5 with a 2.30 ERA this season, would be a good fit in the majors as a fifth starter and will benefit from as much extra rest as he can get.

[But] Kawakami's 3.22 career ERA was fashioned in an extreme pitchers' park with one of the country's better defensive units playing behind him.

Kawakami likely has the best cutter in Japan. Although he has exceptional control with his 92 mph fastball, it lacks movement and gets hit hard. He also has a two-seamer that runs in on right-handers, a slider and a slow curve. Kawakami experimented with a forkball this year, and his groundouts increased sharply.

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Uehara, his longtime Central League rival, is a different puzzle altogether. He has a good fastball and a superb splitter and throws a decent slider that used to be very good. The Giants ace will get major league hitters out, provided he maintains his focus.

Uehara, who has a career 112-61 record with a 3.01 ERA and is a two-time winner of the Sawamura Award (for Japan's best starting pitcher), drifted through the 2008 season in unpredictable spasms. He bounced between the pullpen and the rotation for most of last season and only found his control after being named to the Japanese Olympic roster. The reason for the sudden turnaround is a mystery, but injuries and a lack of focus should be a concern to major league scouts.

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A decade after Uehara passed on his opportunity to be Japan's first top amateur to go directly to the U.S., that distinction now will go to corporate-league right-hander Tazawa.

Tazawa, who stands 5 feet, 10 inches -- "5-11 if you really like him," Wilson said -- will get a major league deal this winter but is unlikely to make it to the majors during that first season.

He has good command of his fastball and slurve, but he lacks velocity, stamina and the ability to keep the ball down.

At 22, Tazawa is unlikely to throw much harder than he does now; his fastball barely tops 90 mph when he is rested, and he struggled to hit 88 mph at the end of last season.

In Class A or Double-A, Tazawa likely will get hit harder and harder as the season wears on.

Because he knows what he's doing against corporate league hitters here, there is a chance Tazawa will make adjustments, although Ojimi is a skeptic.

The Mets scout believes the pitcher's body is too stiff to allow him to keep the ball down in the zone and Tazawa lacks the smarts and toughness to hang in and learn the lessons needed to apply his talent in the majors.

Bottom Line: The Sox have the luxury of a solid 1-2-3 in their rotation, therefore, they can take a chance on the young Tazawa, rather than throw money at the aging Kawakami. Both names have been mentioned, but I haven't heard anything about Kawakami since he said he'd prefer to play for the Sox back in May.

I think it's genius to bring this kid over to America while he's young and teach him how to pitch on 5 days rest. In a year or two he'll be right there with Bowden as a potential starter for the big club... unless Ojimi's right, in which case, we'll have paid $6 million for another Chris Hansen-like project.