The Patriots were embarrassed by the Dolphins and the 49ers are gonna pay for it this week.
The Patriots defense was ranked in the Top 5 or better coming into this season, and despite allowing 38 points to the Dolphins and having one less game on the books due to the bye, they're still ranked 8th in the NFL in points allowed per game (19.3).
Factor that in with JT O'Sullivan's league leading 19 sacks and a Patriots defense ready to prove that last game's meltdown was a fluke... and you might see JT carried off on a stretcher before half time.
The Niners are pretty average on defense: 118 RYPG (15th) and 216 PYPG (13th). With Randy Moss looking for more targets and an extra week to prep, some are predicting that Matt Cassel will be let off the leash and the Pats will by flinging the ball all over the place on Sunday.
I disagree.
The 49ers held Kurt Warner and the dynamic WR duo of Boldin and Fitzgerald to 197 yards and 1 TD in Week 1. In week 2, the Seahawks put up 30 points, but Matt Hsasselbeck was held to 187 yds, 2 INTs and zero TDs - all his receivers were hurt, but still... all the offense came on the ground. In week 3, the Niners held the Lions to 13 points and 146 passing yards. Mike Martz's knowledge of the system and personnel probably helped, but do you see a trend here...? Finally, in Week 4, the Niners defense met their match, The Saints, who throw it more and better than any other team in the NFL. Drew Brees threw for 363 and 3 TDs, so the question is:
Did the 49ers defense get exposed or did the simply run into the best passing game in the league?
I lean towards the latter.
Matt Cassel, despite having weapons like Moss, Welker, Gaffeny and Faulk, is not Drew Brees. Belechick and Pioli know this. They also know that they have a very balanced team, capable of running the ball, going deep and connecting over the middle. This is the approach I expect on Sunday. A controlled, systematic attack that will feature all of the weapons. Will they try going deep to Moss? You bet. Is Wes Welker gonna eat them up underneath? Of course. Are Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris going to keep the Niners off balance by sliding out of the backfield for short passes? I'd bet my house on it.
Frank Gore is gonna run for some yardage, but the Pats will do what they do best - bend, but not break - and that means field goals and punts. I also expect O'Sullivan to be hurried or on the ground for much of this game... it's hard to score from the ground.
Bottom Line: The Patriots don't want or need to prove that they can light up the score board. What they want to prove is that they're still a dangerous "TEAM" even without Brady. I expect a team effort that inspires memories of the 2001 squad - everyone will be involved.
Bottom Line Prediction: Patriots 27, 49ers 13
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