John Lackey (12-5, 3.75 ERA)John Lackey does not have great numbers against the Red Sox. He's 3-6 with a 5.54 ERA and a .305 BAA in 13 starts against Boston, but the numbers were actually much worse before Lackey grabbed two wins in two starts against the Sox this year.
Back in July, Lackey faced the Sox twice over an 11 day period and looked sharp despite a 6.06 ERA for the month. On the 18th he went 7 innings, allowing 3 runs on 5 hits (2 HRs) while fanning 6 in an 11-3 Angels win... then on the 29th he took a no-hitter in to the 9th before Pedroia broke it up with a single. Youk followed that with a home run, but the Sox lost 6-2.
But that was then. Since grabbing his 9th win of the season on the 29th, Lackey is just 3-3 in his last 10 starts and most recently got shelled by the Texas Rangers in his final start of the regular season. The Angels ace allowed 10 runs on 12 hits through 2.2 innings, but some Halos fans are choosing to brush that game off as a "meaningless tune up" for the playoffs.
The Angels coaches aren't too worried either:
Neither Angels pitching coach Mike Butcher nor manager Mike Scioscia is worried by that.
“I look at the track record of the whole season and the way they’ve pitched,” Butcher said. “I’m not making any excuses. Every time you go out there, you want to be at your best but sometimes it doesn’t happen. As long as their arms are healthy, their velocity is fine, I’m not concerned.
“I’ve never been a believer that you can turn it on and off like a switch. But I know they’ll be ready when it’s time to take the ball in the playoffs.”
Scioscia echoed Butcher’s assessment of the final pre-playoff tune-ups, saying both Lackey’s and Santana’s “stuff still looked good” but they ran up against a Rangers’ lineup that “was not very forgiving” when they made mistakes.
“I think if their velocity was down and they struggled making their pitches, then you’d be concerned,” Scioscia said. “But that wasn’t the case."
They may not be worried, but I'll just throw this factoid out - just for fun:
John Lackey has given up 26 ding dongs in 24 starts this year - coughing up 2 homers a gmea on eight different occasions... With Ortiz, Bay, Youk, Pedroia and maybe even Drew and Lowell capable of going deep at any time - I'd be a little worried.
For more from the land of Rally Monkeys and small ball - check out the Halos Heaven's "Around the Halosphere."
Jon Lester (16-6, 3.21 ERA)
Lester has been our most consistent starter this year and if this game was being played in Fenway I'd be celebrating already... but it's not. As good as Jon has been this year, he has continually struggled on the road: 5-5, 4.09 ERA, .275 BAA.
He did manage to hold down the Yankees back on Aug. 28th (6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K) but Toronto beat him up pretty bad in the other two of the his last three road starts (16 H, 12 ER, 9.1 IP, 2 losses). Mixed in between however were a number of shutout and one-run performances, so it's really tough to predict how he will do tonight.
Lester's struggles on the road are a concern, but his numbers against the Halo's are also troublesome: 1-1 in 4 starts, 33 hits and 17 ER in just 19+ innings, and a a .393 BAA.
But before we send anyone to the edge of the Tobin Bridge, we need only look at Lester's performance in the 2007 World Series to remember that this kid is not phased by the pressure. Last year he blanked the Rockies through 5+ inning on his way to a Game 4 victory, and he may be even stronger both mentally and physically this year.
Tito told WEEI that he has complete faith in Lester... and so should we.
Bottom Line: Another sweep of the Angels would be amazing, but we really only need to split these two road games. If we come back to Fenway with a win in our pockets, I have no doubt we will close the series out at home with Beckett and Lester.
Here are few thoughts of the ALDS from our friends:
Dan at Red Sox Monster has his fearless predictions.
Ryan at Fire Brand has his series preview from behind enemy lines.
And if you need to get yourslef pumped up for the 10 o'clock start head over to Centerfield for some video that's sure to have you waking up the neighbors around game time.
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