ALCS Game 1: Dice-K loves Domes...

“We’re going to have to wait him out and see how he’s throwing,” Rays third baseman Evan Longoria said. “Walks are so important, and if he’s going to come out and do what he normally does, he usually walks a ton of guys and throws a lot of pitches early. If we can get him on the ropes early, we’ve really got to take advantage of that.”

That's what Ray's 3B Evan Longoria had to say about facing Red Sox starter Diasuke Matsuzaka tonight in Game 1... and unfortunately you can't argue with the theory... but I'll try and dance around it.

Matsuzaka walked a league high 94 batters during the regular season, but still managed to win 18 games and lose only three. Amazingly, he was only erased from 8 decisions and the Red Sox won 5 of those games - proving that Matsuzaka could keep his team in the game despite walking tons of batters and struggling to pitch into the 6th inning.

That was exactly what happened in Game 2 of the ALDS against the Angels. Dice-K gave up 3 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks, while fanning 5, but needed 108 pitches to get through 5 innings. The Red Sox went on to win that game thanks to a 9th inning, 2-run ding dong from JD Drew.

The Sox will be hoping for a better performance from Dice-K tonight, and the numbers suggest that they will get it. Matsuzaka remains undefeated on the road this year and went 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 3 starts against the Rays this season. The lone victory came at the Trop, where Matsuzaka owns a 1.80 ERA and a .143 BAA.

:: Cue dancing music ::

Which leads us to to title of this post. Dice-K pitched most of his career in Japan indoors and was pretty successful... he's 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA and a .183 BAA on the fake stuff this year and 4-3 with a 3.09 ERA and .192 BAA in 11 games on turf since coming to America...

Longoria and the Rays will be looking for walks, but Matsuzaka will be in his element tonight, and if you think a few cowbells and blue mohawks are going to scare him, you've obviously never been to a baseball game in Japan.

All that said, Ray's ace James Shields has been pretty good on turf... and overall this season. Shields won 14 games this year and held opponents to 4 runs or less in 28 of 33 starts. He went 9-2 at the Trop with year and is 20-8 with a 3.32 ERA there in his career.

However, Shields is a modest 2-2 with a 5.85 ERA against the Red Sox this season and 2-4 lifetime. David Ortiz probably loves facing Shields more than anyone, he's 7 for 14 (.500) with 4 doubles, 2 homers and 6 RBI... and Dustin Pedroia's .500 BA against Shields could help him break out of his post season slump.

Bottom Line: I think my write up is pretty convincing, but I won't deny that Matsuzaka scares me. With the 2007 version of Josh Beckett apparently vacationing in Thailand, we need to win Game 1 and put the pressure on the Rays.

We take at least one out of the Trop and I like our chance with 3 straight games at Fenway.

Go Sox!