The Red Sox are 6-6 and currently trail the Orioles and Blue Jays in the East.They won the series against the struggling Tigers and have a good shot at taking 2 of 3 from the Yankees with Daisuke opposing Phil Hughes today.
Most were hoping that the Red Sox would head in to May as a .500 team, but despite a slumping David Ortiz and a measly 3.9 runs per game (3.1 if you take out the 12-6 win over Detroit) the Red Sox are keeping pace with their AL Eats opponents and could finish the first month of the season above the expected .500 mark.
How? The friendly confines of Fenway Park.
The Red Sox will play 10 of their remaining 17 games in April at home. Boston is 208-116 (64 W%) at Fenway Park since 2004. As a team, they’ve batted .292 at home in that same time span.
If that’s not enough to make you feel good, consider this: The Red Sox are 95-55 (63 W%) in April since 2002. They never made a trip to Japan during that span, but it has to make you fell a little better…
Here’s some more food for thought: The Sox will face the Rangers, Angels and Blue Jays at home to close out the month. Here’s how those teams faired against the AL East and on the road in 2007:
Rangers :: 20-25 vs AL East :: 28-53 Away
Angels :: 26-18 vs AL East :: 40-41 Away
Blue Jays :: 36-36 vs AL East :: 34-47 Away
The Angels were a .500 team on the road last year and have the best record of the three against the AL East, but with injuries to Escobar and Lackey and F-Rod, they are lucky to be at 6-5 right now.
The Rangers stunk on the road last year and split the 4 game series at Fenway last year. They’re currently batting .249 on the road and overall, while the Sox are batting .281 at the Fens…
The Blue Jays showed that they will cause problem in the Eats this season, but after sweeping the Sox they were swept by Oakland, losing 2 of 3 by one run. They bounced back with two wins over Texas and have it pretty easy in April (TEX, BAL, DET, TB, KC) before ending the month in Boston. They’ll be good, but I like our odds at home…
The Sox will squeeze in two road series against the Indians and Rays as well. Cleveland was nasty at the Jake last year, going 52-29, but with Sabathia struggling and the offense not clicking, the Tribe are batting .242 and pitching with a 4.90 team ERA, while sitting at 4-7 in a tough AL Central division. As it stands right now, the Sox will see Paul Byrd and Sabathia in Cleveland – both are currently 0-2 with ERAs above 11.00…
The Rays are improved and calling up rookie phenom Evan Longoria will help the young offense, but the rays find themselves in familiar waters at the bottom of the AL East and Red Sox killer Scott Kazmir may not be ready for the end of the month series against Boston. Tampa Bay was 29-43 against division rivals last year and 37-44 at “The Trop”… if the Red Sox pitching schedule hold, the Rays will face Beckett (‘nuff said), Wake (9-1 in TB) and Buchholz in that series. If Colon steals Clay’s spot by then, he’s 9-2 against the Rays and 3-1 at Tropicana Field…
Still not convinced? Well here’s the Bottom Line: Despite the crazy schedule to open the season… Despite Big Papi’s slump… Despite having Beckett and Lowell hit the DL before April 13th… The Red Sox are on the verge of winning 3 of their first 4 series. A win today would make the 7-6 (53W%) not quite the 63% they average in April, but with the stats I just gave you, I think I can safely predict an 11-5 run through April (6-3 at home, 5-2 away) – putting the Sox at 18-11 in April… a 62W%.
ps. In 2003 David Ortiz finished the month of April at .212 with 1 HR and 6 RBI in 52 at-bats… he ended up batting .299 in the first half and finished the year at .288 with 31 homers and 101 RBI… He’s in the worst slump of his career at .073, but as El Bencho reminds us “The season is a marathon, not a sprint.”
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