5 reasons why the Red Sox will repeat in 2008

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1. 99% of the 2007 Championship squad will be back for the 2008 campaign

The Red Sox have the right mix of talent, experience and depth that enable them to win in a number of ways: Power (Ramirez, Ortiz, Lowell), small ball (Pedroia, Cora, Youkilis, Lugo) and speed (Ellsbury, Lugo, Crisp). A 20-game winner in Beckett, two 15-game winners in Maztsuzaka and Wakefield and a good mix of young talent and experience on the back end with Lester, Buchholz, Tavarez and Colon. They have the best closer in the game (Papelbon) and a solid bullpen with Okajima, Timlin, Delcarmen and Snyder. Oh, and a coach with two WS rings...

Curt Schilling is the only missing piece and recent reports say the Sox are now considering surgery in an effort to get him healthy for the home stretch – where Schill happens to be at his best: 10-2, 2.23 ERA in the post-season.

Bottom Line: I don’t see any obvious cracks. 97-65, AL East Champs.

2. Pitching wins Championships

Josh Beckett is in the prime of his career and has entered camp extremely focused. He went 20-7 with a 3.27 ERA and just missed the Cy Young Award. He’ll get it this year and he’ll win anther 20 games in the process, but it’s his 6-2, 1.73 ERA post-season line that will enable the Sox to repeat... no other team has that kind of track record in their Game 1 starter and that will give Boston the edge in any playoff series

Daisuke won 15 games in 2007 despite moving to a new country, constant media pressure and struggling with a 5-man rotation. He’s stated that he is much more relaxed this season, and last year’s one-inning meltdowns proved that his composure is the key to his game. With a year under his belt and less pressure, I expect Daisuke to drop below the 4.00 mark and win 17 games – giving the Sox one of the best 1-2 punches in the league.

Veteran Tim Wakefield will anchor the middle of the rotation and plans to fight for 200 innings this season. At 41, Wake won 17 games in 2007 before shutting down with a shoulder injury. If he gets his 200 innings he’ll have another 15-win season.

Having three solid pitchers isn’t always enough to win a Championship. Pitching depth is the key, and the Red Sox have that in abundance. Jon Lester will hold the No. 4 spot and could be a 12 game winner, while the No. 5 spot will likely be a committee consisting of Buchholz, Tavarez, Colon, Snyder and a few rookies like Masterson along the way. The Sox got ___ starts and ___ wins from the ’07 “committee” and this year’s group should do even better this year.

Bottom Line: Beckett wins the Cy Young, Matsuzaka win 17 games with a 3.80 ERA and Buchholz wins 10 games from the No. 5 spot.

3. J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo will rebound from a frustrating 2007

As I was writing this post, Tim posted his thoughts on JD Drew with J.D. Drew: Take Two, and did a great job covering Drew’s major issue from 2007: his loss of power and production.

Tim and I agree that Drew’s approach at the plate seemed to affect his power. Check out Tim’s post for a look at his hit charts. You can see that Drew has never been a pull hitter; he actually drives the ball well up the middle. The greatest example of that was his Grand Salami in the playoffs.

Personally, I think he simply fell into a funk and spent much of the season trying too hard to get out of it -- all while dealing with some serious family issues that know doubt hindered his focus.

Here are J.D. Drew’s stats for 2004, 2006 and 2007 (He only played 72 games in ’05):

2004 – 518 AB, 118 R, 28 2B, 31 HR, 93 RBI, .305 BA, 1.006 OPS
2006 – 494 AB, 84 R, 34 2B, 20 HR, 100 RBI, .283 BA, .891 OPS
2007 – 466 AB, 84 R, 30 2B, 11 HR, 64 RBI, .270 BA, .769 OPS
AVG – 492 AB, 95 R, 31 2B, 20.6 HR, 85.6 RBI, .286 BA, .888 OPS

Other than his 100 RBI in 2006, Drew has declined in all major categories, most notably in the power department. Yet, Bill James predicts Drew will improve on his ’07 numbers this season:

James’ 2008 – 510 AB, 90 R, 29 2B, 20 HR, 78 RBI, .278 BA, .857 OPS

Bottom Line: In 2006 he batted .296 with RISP. In 2007 he fell to .237. Since 2003 he’s averaged .275 w/ RISP, .293 if you take out the .218 mark from the injury plagued ’05 season... History tells us that Drew should be a 90/20/90/.280 hitter. His lack of production (65 RBI) was frustrating, but you have to assume that he and the coaches are working on a refined approach for ’08.

Interesting factoid: He lost his pop and couldn’t hit in the clutch, but Drew batted .291 in 337 at-bats in the 5th spot… he batted just .217 in all other spots and .156 when moved to No. 6, so you have to wonder how he’ll do if he’s officially lost the 5th spot to Lowell this year...

Strangely, Julio Lugo, the other big signing from the 2006 offseason, experienced an equally frustrating move to Boston. Lugo was the leadoff man for four seasons in Tampa Bay and tallied a .270 BA and a .335 OBP from 2000 to 2006. But in 2007, he struggled as the leadoff man, batting .224 in 352 at-bats. He eventually lost the job and finished the season at the bottom of the order, where he batted .305 and raised his OBP to .353 over 174 at-bats.

Lugo admitted to the Herald that he suffered from a stomach virus that zapped his strength and endurance for much of 2007.

“I never got my strength back,” Lugo said. “I started training in January and that only made it worse, and when I got to spring training, I wasn’t right.

“Last year I was sick before I came in. I was weak. I just couldn’t get my bat through the zone. This year I feel better. I’m in better condition.”

If that is true, it should be noted that Lugo still managed to score 71 runs and drive in 73 himself, despite the tummy ache and a .237 BA. He also seemed to get his strength back in the second half, where he batted .280, compared to a horrific .190 to start the season.

Lugo is clearly more comfortable in the nine spot and with Ellsbury likely to be leading off in 2008, the Red Sox will have speed at both ends of the lineup. Lugo stole 33 bases in 2007 while hitting ahead of the run producers. With more opportunities to run while in the 9th spot, Lugo could snag over 40 bags in 2008 (he had 39 in 2005).

Bottom Line: A healthy Lugo should have a 80/15/80/.280 line. Combine that with a 90/20/90/.280 J.D. Drew (and a career year from Manny, see below) could enable to the 2008 Red Sox to challenge the 2003 Red Sox for overall productivity (961 runs, 8 of 9 players w/ 80+ RBI)

4. Manny Ramirez will return to form

For the first time since 1997, Manny did not finish the season with 30 HRs and 100 RBI. He also missed most of September due to injury. Yet the Sox still managed to win the East and tally 96 wins.

Imagine what they’ll do with Manny in a contract year…

From ’98 to ’06 Manny Ramirez batted .320 and averaged 40 home runs and 127 RBI per season. In 2007, in 483 at-bats, he tallied just 20 HRs and 88 RBI while batting .296. But he did bat .348 with 4 homers and 16 RBI in the playoffs…

Bottom Line: Manny is a hitting machine. He’ll turn 36 in May, but with one more big payout on the horizon, you know he’s going to have a monster season. You don’t have to look too hard to see that players tend to rise to the occasion in a contract year: Mike Lowell, Jorge Posada, Torri Hunter...

5. The competition is good, but not better

The Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians and Los Angeles Angels look to be the best competition, with the Yankees and Mariners close behind.

The Tigers made a few big moves in the off-season signing Cabrera, Renteria and Willis. They will score plenty of runs this year, but the Yankees lead the league with 968 runs and still lost the AL Eats to the Sox (867) and the ALDS to the Indians (811). Why? Pitching. Bonderman fell apart last season (11-9, 5.01) and Willis is not the answer to a rotation that relies too heavily on Justin Verlander. Not too mention a bullpen with a number of question marks: Jones, Zumaya, Rodney.

The Angels signed a big name as well, adding Torri Hunter to the outfield in an effort to add more pop to a small ball line up. The Angels are actually the opposite of the Tigers: Solid pitching with Lackey, Escobar, Weaver, and closer F-Rod, but they had to scrape together 822 runs with Orlando Cabrera as their No. 2 RBI guy (82) -- and now he’s with the White Sox… Hunter is capable of adding 25+ home runs and 100 RBI to the offense, but despite making the playoffs 4 times this decade, the Angles have swept twice by the Red Sox and haven’t won a postseason series since their 2002 World Series victory.

The Yankees are always in the hunt and will feature a squad similar to the Yankees with lots of offense and questions marks in the rotation... But Arod continues to struggle when it matters most and Joba Chamberlain can’t fix the rotation and the bullpen situation at the same time. That said, the Yankees have similarities to the Sox in that they will be hoping for solid performances from aging veterans (Wake / Mussina) and inexperienced rookies (Lester, Buchholz / Chamberlain, Kennedy & Hughes)... so anything’s possible.

I think the Cleveland Indians present the biggest challenge to the Red Sox. They are almost as well rounded as the Sox, but Martinez and Hafner aren’t Manny and Papi, Sizemore might be the best CF in the AL, the rest of the OF consists of unproven players like Jason Michaels and Franklin Gutierrez. And a .268 team batting average needs to be improved upon if they want to stay ahead in the AL Central. Sabathia and Carmona are young and talented, and will be in the Cy Young mix again this year, but Westbrook and Byrd both have 4.35 career ERAs and closer Joe Borowski struggled down the stretch in 2007. The one place the Indians might have everyone beat is their bullpen. Betancourt and Perez will help the Tribe close out close games, but can this team rebound from a heartbreaking post-season flop in 2007?

Bottomline: The Red Sox are the team to beat in 2008. It will be a battle in the AL East with a young and talented D-Rays squad and a solid Blue Jays team, but the dismantled Orioles will give up more wins than they have in the past. In the end, the Sox are built for the postseason, while the other contenders have more question marks.

Prediction: Red Sox over Yankees, Red Sox over Indians, Red Sox over Phillies.