VOTE: Should the Sox trade for Santana?

Due to sloppy typing, I had to re-post the Santana poll, and therefore lost the 6 votes we already had. For the record, the score was tied at 3, indicating that Red Sox Nation is split down the middle about this issue.

I voted to keep our rookies, as Beckett, Matsuzaka and the gang seem like a formidable staff already, but a few of you feel that we can afford to lose Lester and the young guys because Santana is young himself, and already proven - much like Beckett.

I can't deny that with Schilling and Wake on their way out, grabbing Santana now and having he and Beckett at the 1-2 punch for years to come looks like a great idea, but I expect Dice-K to improve and I think Lester and Buccholtz would round out the top four spots rather nicely over the next few years.

Food for thought: Santana has been nasty in his short career, but I'd love to know what happened this year to knock him from a 20-game winner to 15-11...

Now... keep voting and explain youselves witha comment! This is supposed to be a format for debate dammit!

Santana Watch

The latest rumblings from ESPN's Buster Onley say that the Twins want Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and a fourth player from the Sox for Santana. Rotoworld.com says:

Charley Walters said the fourth player was Justin Masterson. Olney says it could be Michael Bowden, though that's still in flux. Bowden was viewed as the superior property a few months ago, but Masterson has since overtaken him in the eyes of many. This doesn't sound as good for the Twins as a Phil Hughes-Melky Cabrera-Austin Jackson package, though if the Yankees are trying to sub in Ian Kennedy for Hughes, then Boston's offer is clearly better. The Twins would use Lester in the middle of their rotation and Crisp in center field. Lowrie could use another half-season in Triple-A, but he might get a chance to battle for a starting job at short or at second base in spring training.

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The Twins just acquired outfielder and ROTY runner-up Delmon Young from the Devil Days, but Young played primarily in RF for Tampa Bay, so he and Michael Cuddyer will flank the OF , but the Twins still need someone in CF. That means the Sox and Yankees seem to have the best offer, but the Mets are apparently in the running now as well, with the departure of SS J. Bartlett. Here's the word from Shea:

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According to the New York Daily News, there's "speculation in MLB circles" that the Mets are considering parting with Jose Reyes in a potential trade for Johan Santana. Minnesota traded away its starting shortstop Wednesday, sending Jason Bartlett to Tampa Bay. However, previous reports have suggested that the Mets aren't willing to trade Reyes, David Wright or Carlos Beltran. If a deal for Santana can't be worked out, the newspaper speculates that the Mets will pursue Erik Bedard, Dan Haren or Dontrelle Willis.

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Bottomline: I'd love to get Santana, but I kinda feel like we're giving up a lot. This is a Yankees kinda move - I say keep the young guys and build from within, we have a great staff already.

Daily Dose

Sox Want Santana

With the Winter Meetings set begin next week, the Red Sox are talking to the Twins about a trade for lefty starter Johan Santana. The Boston Herald reports that the Twins are asking for Clay Buccholtz and a few other prospects. They would also like to fill the void left in centerfield now that Torii Hunter is with the White Sox, but the Sox would prefer to keep Jacoby and trade Crisp, and that may be a sticking point. More

Ortiz Recovering

From the Boston Herald: David Ortiz said he is recovering well from a Nov. 6 arthroscopic procedure on his right knee.

“I think I will be training and running at full speed by January,” Ortiz told the Associated Press from the Dominican Republic. “It was a simple operation.” . . .

Colvin Out For Season

The Patriots have avoided the injury bug for most of the season, but Linebacker Rosevelt Colvin will be shut down for the season after injuring his foot in Sunday night’s game. Colvin played well at outside linebacker, but now ILB Adalius Thomas will likely slide back to fill in for Colvin, but that will force aging ILB’s Bruschi and Seau to play more downs. Get a nice breakdown on this story here.

Troy Brown Returns

The Patriots have activated veteran WR Troy Brown. How much playing time he will see behind Moss, Welker, Stallworth and Gaffney is the question. Perhaps he could help on defense…

NFL Pix: Week 12 Results

The men have officially been separated from the boys.

Damien and Woody remain locked in a death match for the No. 1 spot. Both are currently at 121 points. Thanks to his third bonus point of the season, Alex is in second with 118, and is most likely the only player with a chance at catching the top two. Jim is third with 115 points and Chris is tied for fourth with Marc at 113, who has catapulted himself out of the cellar with a 53-20 record (73 W%) over the past 5 weeks.

Val (102) won the week and now has back-to-back weeks with double-digit wins. She is now just 5 points back from Tom (107), who would have won the week with 13 wins if he had managed to make his Turkey Day picks…

That said, I am giving Tom the Pick of the Week Award for still winning 10 points, despite forfeiting three games. Pretty impressive really.

We’ll have Thursday games for the rest of the season, so don’t forget to make those pix on Wednesday. This week’s matchup is a good one: Green Bay @ Dallas, and will most likely decide wha gets home field advantage in the playoffs.

If you’re thinking you all but out of the race at this point, consider this:

At 102 points, if I win 10 games a week for the rest of the season, and Woody (121) wins only 8 games per week, I would finish the year with 162 points – Woody with 161.

So, a few big weeks from the second string players, coupled with some mediocre weeks from the top guys, could make things interesting – so keep fighting!

Bottomline: Andy lost the title to Murph in the final week in 2006…

Lowell and Sox agree to deal

Numerous sources are saying the Red Sox and Mike Lowell have agreed to a 3-year, $37.5 million deal.

The Bottomline: The Yankees signed Arod, the Phillies won't spend the money, and the Dodgers, etc. have been unwilling to give him 4 years... consider this a done deal. More details as they become available...

Full Story - Boston Herald

Turning Japanese

From Yahoo! Sports

NEW YORK (AP) -- The Boston Red Sox will open their World Series title defense in Tokyo.
Following months of negotiations, the Red Sox agreed to a two-game series against the Oakland Athletics in Japan on March 25-26, and the commissioner's office announced the trip early Wednesday.

With Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima, the Red Sox figure to be an attractive draw for the games at the Tokyo Dome. The Red Sox and A's also will play exhibition games on March 23-24 against Japanese teams.
After the trip, the teams return to the United States and open the rest of their regular-season schedules with a two-game series at Oakland on April 1-2. That originally was to be a four-game set.
Oakland will be the home team for the games in Japan.

The Japan visit is one of two Asian trips Major League Baseball hopes to make next year. Talks have been under way for months to have the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres play exhibition games in Beijing, most likely on March 14-15, at the ballpark to be used for the 2008 Olympics. That would be Major League Baseball's first trip to China.

If the Beijing games take place, the Dodgers likely would then travel to Arizona for most of their remaining spring training games. Next spring is their last at Vero Beach, Fla., where they first trained in 1949. They switch their training base in 2009 to Glendale, Ariz.

Boston and Oakland will be the third set of teams to open the regular season at the Tokyo Dome, following the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs (2000), and the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Devil Rays (2004). A scheduled 2003 series between Oakland and Seattle at the Tokyo Dome was canceled because of the threat of war in Iraq.

"Opening our regular season in Japan for the third time is another example of Major League Baseball's commitment to continue the global growth of the game," commissioner Bud Selig said in a statement.

Rob's take: I'm not really a big fan of this, but in 2004 the Yankees went 11-10 in April and went on to 101 games and the AL East title, so I don't expect it to hurt the Sox that much. The World Baseball Classic seemed to put a bigger strain on the players that this two-game set will...

Sabathia Steals Cy Young From Beckett

C.C. Sabathia was awarded the AL Cy Young Award at 2pm today. Here are a few attempts from MLB.com at justifying this nonsense:

"The 27-year-old Sabathia was rewarded for a regular season that saw him go 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA in 34 starts. The win total, ERA mark and number of starts were all career bests for Sabathia, as were his strikeout total of 209 and his innings total of 241, which led the Majors. "

"Though Beckett certainly had award-worthy credentials with a 20-7 record and 3.27 ERA in 30 starts for the AL East champion Red Sox, he was 40 1/3 innings shy of Sabathia's tally."

"Furthermore, Sabathia didn't have the run support that Beckett had. While the Red Sox put together an average of 6.4 runs in Beckett's starts, the Indians afforded Sabathia an average of 5.1. "

All that said, Beckett won more games (20) in 40 less innings and struck out 194, just 15 less that Sabathia.

Bottomline: I'd take the World Series ring over the Cy Young any day, and I bet Josh would too.

Full Story

World Series MVP - Now testing the market...

Mike Lowell and the Sox were unable to agree on a deal before the Nov. 12 deadline. Now this year's Mr. Clutch will entertain offers from the rest of the league - not good.

The key? A four-year deal... The Sox were apparently unwilling to give him 4 years, even though they seemed to agree on the total sum of money (approx. $12M/yr).

You know the Yankees will offer him whatever he wants and Philly is interested as well, but they may choose to spend that cash on pitching.

We'll keep you posted on this and all the other Hot Stove stuff... but for now, perk your self up with this hilarious post from Surviving Grady. Why this is not a weekly sitcom on NESN, but Sox Appeal made the cut... I just don't know... Muph - get on this!

VOTE: Pat's Biggest Surprise?

The votes are in and Wes Welker (4 votes) is your choice for biggest surprise so far this season. He squeaked by Moss, who got 3 votes, and apparently, no one is surprised at Brady's dominance.

Things are looking good for the Pats down the stretch. Baltimore was supposed to joining Pittsburgh in the "tough games" category, but the past few weeks have proven what we already knew - they can't score to save their lives. Meanwhile, the Steelers trounced the Ravens in a Monday Night Mud-fest and then rallied to beat Cleveland after falling behind, most likely due to the short week.

Big Ben and the Steeler's insane defense prove to be the only remaining threat to the Pats.

NFL Pix - Week 10 Recap

Wow. Another ugly week. The 'Skins blow it against the Eagles and are now the unpickable team. Buffalo manages just 13 points against Miami and after scoring 33 on Cincy... the Saints hand the Rams their first win of the season after winning four in a row. Pittsburgh almost loses to division rival Cleveland. Arizona trounces Detroit and Jacksonville suddenly kicked it into gear and stuffed a solid Tennessee team.

Who knew?

So, in conclusion, Murph wins the week with a 9-5 record. That gets him back in the hunt with 90 points, but Damien (99) and Woody (98) still lead the pack. If it makes you all feel better, the "experts" averaged a 7-7 record just like us this week...

Andy didn't have a great week, but did earn the pick of the week, choosing Denver over KC.

Our extra bonus game was a complete flop, as no one came within 3 points of their score. I do think it was a fun added feature, so I plan to add a bonus game into the final two weeks - giving everybody a few extra chances to move up the ranks before its all done.

All the bye weeks are finished, so you'll have 16 games to choose from over the next six weeks. Then we'll set up the Playoff bracket...

Go Pats!

Pedroia Wins AL Rookie of the Year Award

They just keep piling on the bling here in Boston!

Just days after David Ortiz won the AL DH Silver Slugger award, and about a week after admitting he played two months with a broken bone in his hand, Dustin Pedroia was voted AL Rookie of the Year.

Pedroia beat fellow "rookies" Matsuzaka and Okajima, as well as Tampa Bay's Delmon Young and Kansas City's Brian Bannister for the award.

Pedroia finished his rookie season with a.317 BA (2nd to Lowell, .324), 39 doubles (2nd to Ortiz, 52) and a .380 OBP (4th to Ortiz, Manny and Yuke). After struggling through April and May (.182 BA) Pedroia found his groove and solidified the top of the lineup, along with Kevin Youkilis. Both home-grown players played a huge part in the Red Sox post-season success as well.

Pedroia joins Nomar Garciaparra (97), Fred Lynn (75), Carlton Fisk (72), Don Schwall (61) and Walt Dropo (50) on thje list of ROTY winners from Boston. Boston is now tied with Oakland and Baltimore for 2nd with six ROTY winners. New York leads all AL teams with eight winners.

The Cy Young Awards will be handed out tomorrow and the Mangers of the Year will be announced on Thursday.

Full Story

Rev's Advance to Cup For Third Straight Year

The Boston Globe -- The Revolution are hoping the fourth time will be a charm, in the form of a championship.

Taylor Twellman's 38th-minute bicycle kick provided the difference as the Revolution took a 1-0 win over the Chicago Fire in the Eastern Conference final last night, qualifying for their third successive MLS Cup appearance.

The Revolution, who lost in the MLS Cup in 2002, '05, and '06, will meet Houston or Kansas City in the final Nov. 18 in Washington.

"We've had the core group together the last five or six years and we're experienced," Twellman said. "That gut-wrenching feeling in 2005 was hard to take. Last year's was even harder. But you saw in the locker room, we celebrated for two minutes and then we said, 'OK, let's get on with it.' "

Twellman has converted timely goals - he now has 100 in MLS in the regular season (91) and playoffs (9) - but few as spectacular as this one.

Full Story - MLS.com

See Twellman's Bicycle Kick

The Daily Does

From Boston.com: Theo optimistic; third year the key?

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein continues to be optimistic about progress on talks with Mike Lowell, but he has not gone so far as to say they are close to a deal.

Sources familiar with the Lowell negotiations indicated to the Globe's Nick Cafardo that Lowell -- who officially filed for free agency Tuesday -- would need a third year guaranteed, and if he gets it, he's likely to take a hometown discount. "We talk every single day to Theo," said Lowell's agent, Sam Levinson. "Nothing yet, but we're trying. Mike loves being a Red Sox and we're trying to make it happen."

Levinson reiterated how much Lowell wants to stay in Boston on Tuesday night. He met with Epstein and his entourage at around midnight, but the talks again seemed informal.

More from Cafardo: In recent days, the market for Lowell hasn't been as active as expected. Phillies GM Pat Gillick stated that he will not devote a lot of his resources toward a third baseman but will earmark the money toward pitching. Other Phillies personnel would love to see Lowell in Philadelphia. A telltale sign that Lowell will returning to the Red Sox? Yankees manager Joe Girardi and general manager Brian Cashman both commented Tuesday that they will have to make a deal for a third baseman to replace Alex Rodriguez, the insinuation being that they expect Lowell, the top third baseman on the market after A-Rod, to stay put. The Red Sox have exclusive negotiating rights with Lowell until Nov. 12.

It's Good to be a Bostonian...

Yuke Wins Gold Glove

Kevin Youkilis did not commit an error in 1,080 total chances at first base this season and recorded 990 putouts for the Red Sox, who committed 81 errors as a team -- the second-fewest in the league.

Most of the other Awards will be handed out on Nov. 13th... look for the Sox to pile on the bling with Beckett as the front-runner for the Cy Young Award, Pedroia for AL Rookie of the Year and Tito for Manager of the Year.

Coco, who finished the season 4th in the AL in zone rating at .909 and made 85 "outs out of zone (OOZ) was denied a Gold Glove due to the popularity of lesser OFs like Ichiro (.893 ZR - 8th, 97 OOZ), Torii Hunter (.891 ZR - 10th, 47 OOZ) and Grady Sizemore (.881 ZR - 14th, 45 OOZ). Tigers center fielder Curtiz Granderson (.921 ZR - 1st, 58 OOZ) was also shafted.

See the rest of the AL Gold Glover winners here.

Schilling Agrees to 1-year Deal with Sox

Curt Schilling and the Boston Red Sox have reached an agreement on a one-year deal worth about $8 million in base salary and another $2 million in potential incentives, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney reports.

The agreement is pending Schilling, 40, passing a physical exam.

Full Article

VOTE: Who has been the biggest surprise for the 2007 New England Patriots?

It's been a wild ride so far this season... but who has been the biggest surprise? I for one, had my doubts about Randy Moss -- not his talent, but his willingness to fit the Patriots system... and his health. Boy was I wrong!

Or maybe you think Wes Welker and his scrappy style is the biggest surprise. You can't deny that he's a larger impact that most expected...

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Or maybe you're impressed with the Defense. Entering the season without Seymour and Harrison had me wondering who would step up, but it really has been a team effort and now both guys are back and healthy...

If I forgot anyone, leave a comment and speak your mind.

The Daily Dose

The Hot Stove has officially been ignited…

The GM meeting have started and the Boston Herald reports that Theo Epstein is working hard to sign the key free agents the Sox have before the Nov. 12 deadline.

Obviously, Arod is a hot topic, but Theo says he is focused on re-signing Mike Lowell.

“With respect to third basemen, signing Mike is our clear priority,” Epstein said. “We’re going to work hard at that and really hope to get something done. I hope this doesn’t come to pass, but if he eventually signs somewhere else, then we’ll explore other options, but really, right now, we’re focused on trying to sign Mike.”

Signing Lowell and Schilling would take care of two major concerns, but there’s still work to be done. Ellsbury is almost guaranteed to bump Coco out of center field, so trading him for a quality reliever or bench player will likely come up this week as well.

“A lot of it is dependent upon what happens with those two guys (Lowell and Schilling) - obviously, we’d like to add some bullpen depth,” Epstein said. “We’re ready to work on the bench, but I think the best benches are designed to complement the everyday guys. We’re in a wait-and-see. If we’re lucky enough to bring Mike back, then we’ll probably be looking for a left-handed extra bat in the infield, but we want to wait and see exactly what our everyday lineup is going to look like first.”

Theo is also working with Schilling on a 1-year deal and Schill is making sure Red Sox Nation is kept abreast of the situation at 38Pitches.com

Schilling, when reached via phone, said things “gathered momentum and if they continued to progress like they did (yesterday), something could potentially get done.”

The Herald says the deal is believed to be incentive-laden, and might be contingent only upon a physical.

Prior to this past season, Schilling was looking for a one-year, $13 million extension.

Last night, Schilling posted the following:

“Talks with the Red Sox are moving. Theo and I have spoken multiple times daily over the past week and given the current situation I am feeling very confident that we will be able to finalize a 1 year contract to allow us a chance to finish our career as members of the Red Sox organization.

“There are some things to iron out and details that must be finalized for both sides but barring something unforeseen or outrageously odd happening I feel very comfortable that I will finish my career here.”

Side Notes: Two familiar lefty pitchers may be on the Red Sox radar during the offseason… Reports from St. Petersburg state that the D-Rays may shop their young ace Scott Kazmir, but that the offer would have to extremely lucrative for the Rays. This seems like a dumb move for the struggling Rays, but if the Sox have plenty of young talent and cash to make an offer…

Andy Pettite has also chosen to test the Fee Agent Market. It’s just as likely he’ll retire, but an experienced lefty pitcher is always worth throwing a number at…

Joe Torre is officially the new Manager of the LA Dodgers. Let the mass exodus from New York begin…

NFL Pix - Week 9 Recap

It was another solid week for many of the Pix players. Damie and Woody still remain in first place with 92 points, but Alex and Jim have 87 and Chris has 86... the gap is closing...

Marc has almost made a strong push out of the cellar losing just 4 games in the past two weeks. He is now one point out of 4th place.

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Tom scored the bonus point by guessing the lowest score of the Pats game. We all expected a few more points from those two offenses, but as Belichick would say, "It is what it is."

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The Pick of the Week goes to Linda for knowing that the Viking would embarrass the Chargers, but extra kudos are also due to Ken (my Dad) for winning 12 games as the Guest Player... Dad - I'll be calling this week for advice on Week 10...

Marc and John finished with 11 wins and earned the win for the week.

This coming week features a new spin since we don't have a Pats game to pick: There is a nice AFC matchup in San Diego as the Colts try to rally after a tough loss to the Pats... insert your snide chuckle here... So, pick the score of that game for a bonus point.

AND, for an EXTRA bonus point, pick the score of one other game of your choice (I chose the KC v DEN game). If you're withing +/- 3 points of the total score, you'll get an additional bonus point.

As always, if anyone guesses the exact score of either game, they'll get two bonus points.

Good Luck!

The Daily Dose

David Ortiz is scheduled to undergo arthroscopic surgery to repair his right knee on Tuesday. The surgery will fix a slight tear Ortiz has in the meniscus cartilage. The Boston Herald is reporting that he should only need a few weeks to recover.

Big Papi played through the pain all season and managed 35 HRs and 117 RBIs. The numbers were down from 2006 (54, 137) but he did almost double his doubles (heh), hitting 52 compared to 29 in '06.

Bottomline: He needed the surgery and it should only make him better for 2008.

An MRI Friday revealed that RHP Tim Wakefield has a small tear in his right labrum, but he won't need surgery to repair it. Wakefield, who just had his 2008 club option picked up by the Red Sox, should be able to begin his offseason conditioning program in early December, as scheduled.

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This is great news, especially with Schilling testing the Free Agent Market. To be honest, after hearing his press conference before the World Series, I thought he was done. Now, if Schill moves on, Wake would complete the back end of a strong rotation, mixed with Beckettt and Dice-K, and rookies Buchholtz and Letser. Wake's veteran leadership would be extremely helpful, as would the 12+ wins he's managed to dish out, on average, as a starter.

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Bottomline: I'm not ready for a Red Sox roster that does not include Shakey Wakey.

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According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Curt Schilling is the Cardinals' preferred target as they attempt to upgrade their rotation. The Cards contacted Schilling on Friday, though they can't discuss money with him yet. Schilling also made it clear on his blog that he is involved in discussions with Boston, the only team he can talk money with right now.

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We all know Schill is going to do everything he can to drive the price up before he signs. My gut tells me he doesn't want to leave Boston, but I'm not sure Theo and Co. want to play games and wait until the last bid comes in to sign him. I'd be surprised if the Sox sign him before the exclusive deadline ends in the 12th.

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Bottomline: Schilling is going to get offered a deal that the Sox won't match, so he'll have to choose what is more important to him and his family - money or location.

The WS Champs make the rounds

Papelbon was on Letterman last night. Click here for the full 9 minute segment. If you need a teaser, I'll simply say this: He does a Big Papi impression and someone says Bedazzler...

Also: Manny will be on the Tonight Show tonight and Papi will sit down with Conan on Friday.

Thanks to www.survivinggrady.com and www.outincenterfield.com for the heads up.

The Game of the Century: Patriots vs Colts

With the Game of the Century coming up this Sunday, I thought we’d take a look at the Colts’ season so far. They’ve blown away a few teams, especially as of late, like the 41-10 opener over New Orleans and their past three games versus Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Carolina, beating them by a combined score of 93-28. But they’ve had a few close ones as well, that might show some weaknesses…

Game 2 – IND 22, TEN 20 (@ TEN)

Both teams now feature much improved defenses, but Indy’s D made the crucial stop in the 4th quarter to hold off Young and the Titans. It never should have been that close, but Vinatieri missed a 36-yarder, had an EP blocked and another FG was tipped, but went in. The Colts had a 16-6 lead at half time but the Titans D forced Manning into an INT and two sacks, holding the Colts to just two short FGs in the 2nd half. Tennessee scored on a 1-yard pass in the 4th and had a chance for a game-winning FG, but Young got called for taunting after a scramble and then fumbled the ball on 4th down.

Manning – 28-42 for 312, TD, INT / Addai - 20 R for 81, TD / Vinatieri – 3 FGM

Game 3 – IND 30, HOU 24 (@ HOU)

The Colts should have lost this game. Houston started without their starting WR Andre Johnson and lost starting RB Ahman Green in the second quarter. They played the rest of the game with 3rd string RB Samko Gado, while Johnson’s replacement Jacoby Jones and their center left in the second half with injures. Still, Houston was only down 14-10 at the half, and stayed in the game by scoring 14 points in the 4th and by holding Indy to more FGs (3 in the 2nd half, only 1 TD). But like Young the week before, QB Matt Shaub would cost his team the win with late miscues, forcing the ball into coverage and throwing 2 INTs in the 2nd half.

Manning – 20-29 for 273, TD / Addai 22 R for 72, 2 TD / Vinatieri – 3 FGM

Game 4 – IND 38, DEN 20 (@IND)

This one wasn’t really close in the end, but the Broncos took a 10-0 lead in the first quarter by pounding the ball with RB Travis Henry, totaling 160 rushing yards in the 1st half. Manning and the Colts rallied, scoring on 6 of their last 8 possessions, while the defense made adjustments to stop the run and force Jay Cutler to throw the ball. The adjustments on both sides of the ball were impressive, but to do it successfully without WR Marvin Harrison and two key defensive players, S Bob Sanders and OLB Rob Morris, shows the Colts' depth.

Manning – 20-27 for 193, 3 TD / Addai – 19 R for 136, TD / Clark 6 R for 76, 2 TD

What we know

Manning is good and still knows how to get out of a jam – as usual he and Brady are in a class by themselves - although this year Brady has created a whole new class…

The Colts’ defense has dramatically improved, especially against the run, moving from last in the league to 13th. That said, they still allow 107.4 yards per game on the ground. The Colts are 2nd in points allowed at 14.6 PPG, while the Patriots are 5th at 15.9, but they are 4th in yards allowed at 272.9, while the Pats are 3rd at 268.5 YPG.

Joseph Addai and Dallas Clark have emerged as key contributors to the offense, and Reggie Wayne has replaced Marvin Harrison as the new No.1 receiver.

Vinatieri has faltered a little this year and has yet to attempt a 40+yard FG. He hasn’t made a 50-yarder since 2003.

What the Patriots need to do

Keep the Colts offense off the field. The Colts will try and to the same to Brady, so expect healthy doses of Addai and Maroney… and Welker and Clark who are used in the flat to supplement the run.

Score points. Both teams have solid defenses, so I don’t expect this to be a 48-42 game, but 38-34 is likely, especially if either defense can create some turnovers. The Pats are No. 1 with 41.4 PPG and the Colts are 3rd with 32.0 PPG - This is the kind of game that could come down to whoever has the ball last.

Run the ball. The Colts are the best in the league against the pass, allowing just 165.4 yards per game. They haven’t played a team with this many weapons yet, so Brady, Moss, Welker, etc. will likely knock them out of 1st place come Monday morning, but they are still susceptible to the run, so Maroney and the O-line need to step up this week and grind it out.

Bottomline: 38-34 Patriots. The Colts have a solid defense, but so did Washington (52 pts) and Dallas (48 pts) and San Diego (38 pts). It will be the Colts offense running down the clock that will limit the Patriots. The Pats have the better D, and that will be the determining factor.

Key Stat: The Colts have allowed fewer points per game (14.9 PPG) than the Pats, but a closer look at the opposing offenses tells us something: The best offense the Colts have faced is the Houston Texans (22.4 PPG, 10th), and they were missing a number of key players. The Patriots have allowed 15.9 PPG (5th), but have played 5 of their 8 games against Top 15 offenses: Dallas (32.4, 2nd), Cleveland (27.7, 4th), Cincinnati (25.3, 6th), San Diego (24.6, 8th) and Miami (20.8, 13th). That tells me the Pats can handle Manning and the Colts, but the Colts haven’t seen an offense anywhere close to the Patriots…

MVP Prediction (besides Brady): Wes Welker – 10 rec, 120 yds, 1 TD - “the hard way” (none of that heave it up to Moss for a 40 yard TD stuff)